Market worries revived Shanghai aluminum trend volatility decline

Market focus: (1) China's GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.
2%, turning the growth rate from negative to positive; GDP in the first half of the year was 456614 billion yuan, down 1.
6%
year-on-year at comparable prices.
(2) U.
S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on July 15 that the United States will impose visa sanctions
on some Huawei employees.
He also said that the United States will announce new visa restrictions
on technology companies such as Huawei later local time.
(3) SMM data, on July 16, the weekly social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum fell slightly by 4,000 tons to 708,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On July 16, spot A00 aluminum reported 14510-14550 yuan / ton, the average price was 14530 yuan / ton, down 290 yuan / ton
daily.
Futures fell sharply, spot declines were slightly narrower, market sentiment turned around, and spot premiums are expected to stabilize
after sharp fluctuations in futures.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 118,280 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 2,337 tons, an increase of 6 consecutive days; On July 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1,663,800 tons, a daily decrease of 5,750 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract were 84558 lots, an increase of 70 lots per day, short positions were 95255 lots, a daily decrease of 6713 lots, net short positions were 10697 lots, a daily increase of 6783 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

Rising tensions between China and the United States have triggered renewed market concerns; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has been significantly repaired, and the output of electrolytic aluminum will be gradually released; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the recent Shanghai aluminum inventory has rebounded significantly, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, China's GDP in the second quarter exceeded expectations, and the global economic recovery trend; In addition, the performance of domestic downstream demand is still down, and the short-term supply is still tight, which supports aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, futures fell sharply, the spot decline was slightly narrower, market sentiment turned around, and after the sharp fluctuations in futures, spot premiums are expected to stabilize
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of Shanghai's main 2008 contract sharply reduced their positions, testing the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock will stabilize
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can operate lightly in the range of 13900-14300 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.