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On Thursday, the main 1704 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 48920 yuan / ton, after the opening of the bulls continued to flow out, copper prices stepped down, in turn broke through the 5, 10-day moving average below, in the afternoon with the black series of plunge, a wave of short influx further pulled down copper prices, the end of the low consolidation around 48330 yuan / ton, with 48390 yuan / ton closed at the small black line
.
Shanghai copper continued to pull back during the day, from the perspective of funds, the central bank has converted into a net withdrawal, and shibor has risen across the board for the 7th consecutive day, and in the case of tight funds, base metals and ferrous metals generally reduced their positions and fell
from the market.
At present, Shanghai copper has fallen below the upper 5 and 10-day moving averages, and the long arrangement of the moving averages has been broken, and it is expected that the market will test the support of the 20-day moving average
.
In terms of external trading, London copper opened at 6042 US dollars / ton, after the opening of the bulls continued to flow out, copper prices fell along the daily moving average, smoothly fell below the 5, 10-day moving average, and then around 6010 US dollars / ton for a slight consolidation, in the afternoon, under the drag of the black series, base metals generally fell, copper prices plummeted, probing down to 5960.
5 US dollars / ton, testing down the support of the 20-day moving average, after confirming the support, the bears covered back to lead copper prices back up, and then copper prices were under pressure on the daily moving average consolidation during the European session, As of 17:45, London copper was trading at $5980/mt
.
Intraday copper continued to pullback, the 20-day moving average is still supportive, and the current technical indicators are bearish
.
On the macro front, the Fed minutes showed that many participants believe that if future information shows that the labor market and inflation are flat or better than expected, or the risk of overheating increases, then a rate hike will come fairly quickly
.
Fed funds rate futures currently show a 34% probability of a March rate hike, waiting for clarity on the dollar index
.
Expectations of a Fed rate hike in March have risen, the outlook for the dollar is optimistic, and copper prices remain under pressure
.
On the industrial front, Peruvian metals producer Minera El Brocal's copper concentrate production rose 35% year-on-year to 53,472 tonnes in the fourth quarter of last year, and copper production jumped 57% to 188747 tonnes
for the whole of last year.
According to ICSG data, the global refined copper market was short of 9,000 tonnes in November 2016, compared with 9,200 tonnes
in the first 11 months of last year.
In terms of the market, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved down, market trading has not improved, the current copper discount quotation basically maintained yesterday's level, good copper brands are relatively resistant, some holders are relatively strong, the market supply brands are diverse, the differentiation between flat water copper brands is still serious, some delivery warehouse receipts outflow, more popular, the oversupply pattern is still obvious, and the downstream has not seen obvious entry into the market
。 In the afternoon, the market continued to leak, but the downstream transaction did not improve, the market supply pressure is large, it is difficult for the holder to narrow the discount, the saw is prominent, the inquiry reduces the price of flat water copper maintained at the discount of 260 yuan / ton - discount 220 yuan / ton, premium copper report discount 160 yuan / ton - discount 120 yuan / ton, the price retraced to 47860 yuan / ton - discount 48140 yuan / ton
.
At present, although the copper price broke through the shock range driven by supply-side problems such as strikes, it is fundamentally expected to strengthen the fundamentals, so even if the worry such as strikes fades, the strengthening of fundamentals is still an unavoidable factor
for copper prices.
After the copper price breaks through the previous shock range, there is still room for rebound, such as a pullback in a short period of time, you can still choose the opportunity to buy, and the transaction is still dominated by buying on the dip
.
