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On Tuesday, copper prices rose slightly, with spot quotations of 68,901.
67 yuan / ton, down 1.
01% from the previous day, up 18.
89% from the beginning of the year and 18.
9%
year-on-year.
On the macro front, the US CPI in November rose 6.
8% year-on-year, the highest level in 39 years, which also increased the Fed's determination to accelerate Taper and raise interest rates in advance, which is not favorable from the expected point of view, and the probability of doubling the Fed's interest rate reduction next week is large; At the domestic central economic work conference, stable growth expectations are strong, and the market expects a "tight credit" shift after the central bank lowers the RRR, but moderate relaxation does not mean strong stimulus, which has also become a source
of weak macro expectations.
In terms of fundamentals, there is an expectation of slowdown in supply and demand at the margin, and the price difference of refined waste shows that the supply of scrap copper has picked up, or the pressure of refined copper destocking has been eased, and the destocking of stocks before the Spring Festival has slowed down and even there is an expectation
of accumulation.
From the perspective of premium discounts, both domestic and bonded zone premiums have declined, indicating that trade flows may be reduced
.
In terms of inventory, inventories continued to dematerialize, but destocking slowed down month-on-month, and accumulation expectations increased before the Spring Festival
.
The LME weekly accumulation was 3425 tonnes to 81,775 tonnes, and the weekly destocking of SHFE was 1,058 tonnes to 6,331 tonnes
.
The weekly accumulation of social treasury is 07,400 tons to 90,100 tons, and the weekly destocking of bonded areas is 08,300 tons to 175,200 tons
.
On the whole, the consumption side showed that the off-season was not light, the end of power cuts was superimposed on the marginal improvement of real estate, and the PMI of the copper industry rose in November, but the Fed's interest rate decision is imminent, and the market uncertainty is greater
.
Therefore, multiple factors are intricate, and copper prices remain volatile for
the time being.
