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On the first day after the holiday, the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, with the highest 23290 yuan / ton, the lowest 22640 yuan / ton, and the closing 22755 yuan / ton, up 0.
24% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum rushed back down, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2932 / ton, down 0.
32%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) As of October 8, Mysteel counted that China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 876,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from last Thursday (September 30), and 706,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(2) ADP employment in the United States increased by 568,000 in September, an expected increase of 430,000, and an increase of 374,000
in the previous month.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 22610-22650 yuan / ton, the average price was 22630 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day
.
Holders sold at high prices, and receivers actively purchased and replenished goods at low prices, and the overall transaction activity rebounded
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts is 102094 tons, with a daily increase of 2930 tons; LME stocks were 1,170,800 tonnes, down 17,775 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai's main 2111 contract held 142571 lots, with a daily increase of 1556 lots, a short position of 153631 lots, a daily decrease of 3040 lots, a net short position of 11060 lots, a daily decrease of 732 lots, a long increase, and a decrease in both short and net short
.
Market research: The recent surge in energy prices and the improvement of ADP employment data have triggered market concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, driving funds to safe-haven assets, the dollar has risen, and the non-farm payrolls data
for September is paid attention to.
Domestically, affected by the dual-control policy on energy consumption, the supply of aluminum market continued to contract, and the price of raw materials alumina and thermal coal rose, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum was raised, and the support below the aluminum price was strong
.
However, at present, domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated, and the fourth batch of reserve aluminum is about to enter the market, and it is expected that social inventory will be in a state of accumulation for a long time
.
On the whole, the current aluminum market supply continues to be limited, and the downstream peak season consumption is expected to be expected, short-term aluminum prices or high volatility are dominant
.
