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From the current phenological situation, the domestic Yunnan production area continues to be dry, the market is expected to open or postpone to mid-to-late April, and in early April Yunnan has a wide range of continuous rainfall process, pay attention to whether the cutting will be earlier
than expected.
At the same time, powdery mildew caused serious leaf litter in Jinghong area of Yunnan, and attention was paid to the subsequent yield release
.
NOAA expects that the rainfall in Southeast Asia will continue until August, and watch for flooding during the rainy season in Thailand from May to August
.
From January to February 21, the global supply of tianjiao is still low year-on-year, if the phenology is normal, it will stimulate the release of production capacity under the high price of raw materials, so the weather during the cutting period is more critical
.
The second quarter entered the cutting season, and as of January-February, global supply was low
.
In February, ANRPC production totaled 757,800 tons, -12.
18%
year-on-year.
From January to February, ANRPC production decreased by 7.
84%
year-on-year.
Tire starts continued to be high, and export data performed fairly
.
Benefiting from the results of China's epidemic prevention and control, in the first quarter, the overall operating rate of China's tire enterprises was higher than last year, and the order performance around the Spring Festival was better, while the Spring Festival enterprises celebrated the festival on the spot and resumed work quickly after the holiday, all of which supported the performance
of high starts.
From the perspective of tire exports and China's car market sales, from January to February, China's tire exports maintained a high year-on-year growth rate, with exports of 49.
42 million and 41.
55 million pieces in January and February respectively, up 15% and 140%
year-on-year.
Although the base in February 2020 was low, compared with 2019 data, the year-on-year growth rate of tire exports in 2021 still reached 48%.
Car sales were stable, and heavy-duty trucks performed well
.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile sales in February were 1.
4548 million units, down 41.
88% month-on-month and up 3.
69 times year-on-year; from January to February, the cumulative sales of the automotive industry were 3.
958 million units, a year-on-year increase of 76.
92%.
Among them, in February, China's heavy-duty truck sales were 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.
15 times; from January to February, the heavy-duty truck industry sold a cumulative total of 295,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 95.
63%.
From the perspective of demand, the overseas epidemic has turned around and rebounded, and the recovery of demand is expected to be delayed, paying attention to the changes
in follow-up vaccines and the epidemic.
The deterioration of diplomatic relations between China and European and American countries has no impact on rubber exports in the short term, and we should pay attention to whether subsequent trade relations will be upgraded
.
Overall, in the second quarter, it is expected that the supply and demand of Tianjiao will be strong, but it still faces greater uncertainty, the supply side is dominated by the weather, and the demand side is affected by the overseas epidemic, but the stage bottom support or has been proven, in the absence of extreme bearishness, an appropriate amount of more orders around
14,000.
