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Recently, the continuous Sino-US trade frictions and poor domestic economic data have brought weak macro expectations and suppressed market sentiment; On the other hand, the domestic winter environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected, the pressure of the aluminum market is greater, and the Shanghai aluminum is under pressure and falling; The recent decline in the US dollar index boosted the price of base metals, and the price of Shanghai aluminum rebounded
.
In terms of external trading, after the news of China's retaliation against the United States for a new round of tariffs on its goods, it indicated that Sino-US trade tariffs landed as scheduled, but the market digested the response in advance and the reaction was flat, and the upward support of aluminum prices was weak; From January to July 2018, the global primary aluminum market had a supply shortage of 302,000 tons, and the supply gap provided support for the price of Lun aluminum, which rebounded
by the vibration.
Macro: Domestically, the report's survey summary of the current economic leverage situation shows that the leverage ratio of the real economy sector has increased
slightly.
At the end of the second quarter of 2018, the overall leverage level increased by 0.
6 percentage points and remained basically stable
.
Internationally, the U.
S.
trade dispute with other economies could lead to a $430 billion potential loss in global growth in 2020, while the U.
S.
economy itself is vulnerable
to an escalating tariff war.
In terms of inventory, the trend of aluminum inventory maintained a downward trend during the week, and the latest inventory was reported 1022450 metric tons, reducing the inventory by a total of 24,250 metric tons, a decrease of about 2.
3%; The total weekly stock of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 842,630 tons, down 11,119 tons, or about 1.
3%,
from last week.
Industry News:
1.
According to data released by the International Aluminium Association (IAI), global primary aluminum production (including China) increased to 5.
485 million tons in August, compared with 5.
476 million tons
in July.
2.
According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global primary aluminum market had a supply shortage of 302,000 tons from January to July 2018 and 1.
146 million tons
in 2017.
Outlook for the future: the global primary aluminum supply shortage in the first 7 months, coupled with the change in the price policy of domestic captive power plants, the cost of aluminum has risen, aluminum prices have been supported, and aluminum prices have fluctuated
strongly during the week.
The domestic market coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day double festival, the downstream market stocking may increase, it is expected that the spot aluminum price trend next week will rise steadily, but the upside is limited
.
