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Trade Service
Last week, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum maintained a strong shock trend; The average weekly settlement price of the 1911 contract in Shanghai Aluminum was 13,885 yuan, an increase of about 0.
18% from last week's settlement price; The weekly chart rose 0.
43%.
The postponement of the Sino-US trade agreement may trigger market unease, and the price of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly; The continuous decline in domestic inventories provided support for the upward trend of aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose
slightly.
Externally, the price of London aluminum rose
, boosted by the continued decline in the US dollar index and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations.
The price trend of aluminum during the week maintained a volatile upward trend
.
The market mainly focuses on the $1700 support level
.
In terms of the market, the price trend of spot aluminum in the week showed a W-shaped trend, the data showed that the weekly average quotation of Changjiang spot AOO aluminum ingots was 13984 yuan per ton, down 0 yuan / ton per week, and the average price of Yangtze spot aluminum per ton in the previous week was 13966 yuan, up 18 yuan / ton from the previous month, up 0.
13%
from the previous month.
Electrolytic aluminum profits are still high, supply-side pressure is still large, aluminum prices have limited upside, and spot aluminum prices have rebounded
.
In terms of inventory, the trend of aluminum inventory maintained a downward trend during the week, with inventories reported 959,050 metric tons on Thursday, a total reduction of 7,150 metric tons, a decrease of about 0.
7%; The total stock of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 278736 tons, down 16,101 tons, or about 5.
5%,
from the previous week.
Domestically, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to reach $640 billion in the first half of 2019, up 24%
from the same period in 2018.
Internationally, the Fed approved an expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, while also signaling that policy easing may be close to a halt
.
Aluminum market dynamics:
1.
Although there is uncertainty about new investment capacity in the short term, the comprehensive medium and long-term pattern determines that Yunnan will be the largest variable
on the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply side in the next 1-2 years.
Thomas Reuther, executive board member of German aluminum producer TrimetAluminium, said that after cutting production in 2019, the company plans to produce at full capacity next year due to strong demand from the automotive sector
.
Looking forward to the future market, the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and market sentiment are optimistic, boosting the sentiment of the commodity market, but the market supply has increased, but the demand of downstream enterprises is not good, the receipt of goods is flat, and the rise in spot aluminum prices is limited
.
The market lacks actual benefits, macro instability factors are still there, aluminum prices have insufficient momentum, and short-term spot aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend
.
