Market sentiment has repaired, and aluminum prices have rebounded upward

On the macro front, at the end of last week, China and the United States reached a consensus on economic and trade issues and decided to stop escalating trade restrictions such as tariffs
.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of December 1, local time, President Xi Jinping and US President Trump held a meeting
in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
After the meeting, the relevant person in charge of the Chinese economic and trade team told reporters that the two heads of state discussed Sino-US economic and trade issues and reached a consensus
.
The two heads of state spoke positively of the recent positive and effective consultations
between the economic and trade teams of the two sides.
The two sides believe that healthy and stable China-US economic and trade relations are in the common interests
of the two countries and the world.
The two sides decided to stop escalating trade-restrictive measures such as tariffs, including no increase in existing tariff rates against each other, and no new tariffs on other goods
.

In terms of spot, LME aluminum spot discount was $0.
75/ton, compared with $3.
25/ton
in the previous trading day.
Today's market supply is more abundant, although the holders maintain shipments, but due to the large price increase, downstream today in addition to on-demand procurement, there is little stocking, intermediaries are particularly active, because the widening of the price difference is conducive to their arbitrage, receiving goods is more active
.
Today, the overall transaction in East China is acceptable
.

In terms of stocks, LME aluminum ingot stocks on December 3 decreased by 04,400 tons from yesterday to 1.
048 million tons, and on December 3, domestic aluminum ingot social stocks decreased by 21,000 tons from Monday to 1.
287 million tons
.

In terms of news, boosted by the positive news of G20, bears took safe-haven profits, and aluminum prices rebounded
sharply yesterday.
Although the current supply of aluminum ingots is reduced due to the reduction in production, the domestic aluminum ingots maintain the destocking state, but according to the current estimated supply gap is not enough to make the high inventory rapidly reduced, in addition, the downstream gradually entered the seasonal off-season, and the cost is collapsing trend (anode price down 100 yuan / ton), considering that there is still a large amount of production capacity to be released in 18-19, so it is expected that the domestic aluminum price performance from the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 19 will remain relatively weak
。 The risk point is that the loss factor or the increase in the production reduction of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, then the aluminum price may rebound in stages, but the strength of the rebound still needs to see whether there will be a large-scale production reduction in the future market, and it is expected that the aluminum price is still a bottom-seeking process
.

The phased easing of the Sino-US trade war will greatly boost the short-term market
.
From the perspective of the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum itself, the price of alumina and pre-baked anode weakened, and Shanghai aluminum further declined
.
At present, the industry is in a stage of large losses, but demand has weakened, and up to more than 1.
3 million tons of inventory and a large number of production capacity to be put into operation can still ensure normal supply, if there are no other benefits, it is difficult to see an effective rebound
in aluminum prices.