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This week, due to the Sino-US negotiations, the macro situation is slightly eased, but due to the high uncertainty of the negotiation results, the atmosphere may change at any time, and the restrictions on the expectation of future smelting capacity, therefore, there is uncertainty about whether copper prices can reflect the spot situation, and the copper market is still more certain than the term and futures price difference structure
.
In terms of the market, on the 23rd, the premium range of the spot market was lowered again compared with the previous trading day, the spot market still showed a pattern of oversupply, and the quotation of imported sources was more active, continuing to suppress the spot premium, but as the premium returned to rationality, the willingness of cargo owners to hold up prices increased; In addition, downstream enterprises have entered the market to purchase, and the spot market as a whole has warmed
up compared with the previous trading day.
In terms of inventory, LME inventory continued to recover on the 23rd, mainly due to the increase in European warehouses, in addition, the increase in warehouses in Liverpool, UK, and Asian warehouses as a whole continued to remain stable, so the LME inventory structure did not change
essentially.
On the message surface:
1.
The United States officially imposed $16 billion in additional tariffs on China on August 23, and China immediately counterattacked, and the $50 billion trade war was implemented
.
El Mercurio cited a study by Chile's copper commission Cochilco that a series of bills aimed at protecting Chile's glaciers could eventually halt five mining expansion projects
.
Sites likely to be affected include Los Pelambres in Antofagasta, Andina and Teck in Codelco and Goldcorp's Nueva Union project, all located near
Chilean glaciers.
Cochilco also said that if these mining projects were forced to be terminated, Chile's copper production would be reduced by about 300,000 tons
by 2030.
3.
According to Chinese customs data, scrap metal imports in July were 410,000 tons, down 31% year-on-year, of which copper scrap imports were 210,000 tons, down 26.
8% year-on-year and up 10,000 tons
month-on-month.
The cumulative import volume of copper scrap from January to July this year was 1.
6 million tons, down 540,000 tons or 25.
2%
year-on-year.
This earlier news showed that scrap copper imports are limited
.
On the whole, from the supply side, the pressure is mainly concentrated from the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, but the short-term supply pressure is not large; In addition, the long-term supply outlook for copper mines is relatively tight, to a certain extent, hedging the pressure of concentrated smelting capacity, and copper prices continue to fluctuate in the short term
.
