Market risk sentiment rises Destocking to support short-term copper prices

Today's Shanghai copper opened high, the latest opening price of the Shanghai copper 2203 contract was 71400 yuan / ton, up 530 yuan
.
In terms of macro, the downward pressure on domestic economic growth has increased, mainly dragged down by the downward trend of the real estate industry, and the domestic PMI is only slightly higher than the boom and bust line, and the market expectation is pessimistic
.
Recently, the central bank lowered the MLF by 10 basis points, and the policy of stabilizing growth was frequent
.
Infrastructure remains a key
focus.
At present, it is still in the transition period of gradually entering peak season production after the long Spring Festival holiday, and the strength of actual demand has not yet been obvious, but the country has shown its determination
to stabilize growth.

In terms of inventory, after the Spring Festival, the inventory in the previous period increased by 66,000 tons to 106,000 tons, and the seasonal accumulation was obvious, and the increase data was roughly the same
as in previous years.
During the Spring Festival period in 2019-2021, the inventory in the previous period increased by 3.
4, 5.
1 and 65,000 tons
respectively.

In terms of news, the resumption of road blockades in Peru will strengthen expectations of tight global copper mine supply; Domestic copper smelter output declined, of which cathode copper production decreased by 7.
49% month-on-month, mainly due to smelter maintenance and festivals, supply and demand showed a double weakness, and copper is expected to rise
slightly.

Overall, the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine have cooled significantly, driving market risk sentiment up, and overseas destocking, spot premiums have risen, supporting short-term copper prices
.
However, the continuous accumulation of domestic stocks has led to relatively weak domestic prices and continued to expand import losses
.