Market risk linkage Oil prices have repeatedly fluctuated and weakened

Oil prices fluctuated repeatedly last week, and as of Friday, the main contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at $70.
09 per barrel, down 2.
6%
on a weekly basis.
The main contract of Brent crude futures closed at $72.
87 a barrel, down 3.
19%
on a weekly basis.
SC crude oil futures closed at 460.
5 yuan per barrel
on Friday night.

Geographically, the market is focused on tensions between Russia and Ukraine as this increases the likelihood of sanctions against Russia, which could disrupt Russia's energy sector
.
According to CNBC, Ukraine has called on the European Union to prepare sanctions against Russia in case of further Russian military aggression
.
The performance is more pronounced
in natural gas.
After the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was suspended, it was worried that there was still a large gap in European gas, and European natural gas prices remained high
.

The overall decline in weekly inventories means that demand remains good, with EIA data showing that commercial crude inventories in the United States, excluding strategic reserves, fell sharply more than expected in the week ended Dec.
10, while refined and gasoline inventories both fell sharply more than expected
.
EIA crude oil inventories actually decreased by 4.
584 million barrels in the week, EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 719,000 barrels in the week, and EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 2.
852 million barrels
in the week.
Oil prices fluctuate under the multi-factor game
.

The three major institutions forecast mixed annual oil demand growth, with OPEC forecasting that global oil demand in 2021 would increase by 5.
7 million b/d over last year, and global oil demand expected to increase by 4.
2 million b/d
in 2022.
The EIA expects global crude oil demand growth of 5.
1 million b/d in 2021 and 3.
55 million b/d
in 2022.
The IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 5.
4 million b/d in 2021 and 3.
3 million b/d in 2022, when it will return to pre-pandemic levels of 99.
5 million b
/d.
The three major institutions' expectations for global crude oil demand next year are IEA pessimistic, EIA cautious and OPEC positive
.

In terms of rig count, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States increased by three to 579 in the week ended Dec.
17, the highest level
since April 2020.
The number of rigs increased by 233, or 67 percent
, from the same period last year.
The number of active U.
S.
oil rigs rose four to 475 last week, the highest level
since April 2020.

From the perspective of time node, the lack of oil price drive, the sharp decline in prices on Friday (December 17) is mainly due to market risk linkage, need to pay attention to next week's Christmas holiday coming, changes in market liquidity, oil prices cautious treatment
.