Market risk aversion warms up, and Shanghai copper is under obvious pressure

Market focus: (1) China's foreign trade imports and exports in July were 2.
93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.
5%; The trade surplus was 442.
23 billion yuan, an increase of 45.
9%.

(2) Negotiations on a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States broke down, and neither party said when it would restart
.
(3) US non-farm payrolls rose by 1.
763 million in July, better than market expectations of 1.
6 million
.
The unemployment rate for the month was 10.
2%, also better than market expectations of 10.
5%.

Spot analysis: On August 10, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 50020-50160 yuan / ton, the average price was 50090 yuan / ton, down 1350 yuan / ton
daily.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 64,184 tons, a daily decrease of 1,246 tons; On August 7, LME copper stocks were 117,950 tons, down 3,000 tons per day, down 38 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended August 7, the Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period was reported at 172455 tons, an increase of 12,942 tons
per week.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 83320 lots, an increase of 361 lots per day, short positions were 81202 lots, a daily decrease of 2056 lots, a net long position of 2118 lots, a daily increase of 2417 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2009 on August 10 downward rebound
.
The new round of stimulus policies in the United States failed to reach an agreement, and the difficult production of the aid package will cause resistance to the recovery of the US economy, and the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded; The escalating confrontation between China and the United States has also warmed up the market's risk aversion; At the same time, the current market is still in the off-season, downstream demand is weak, and the recent accumulation of Shanghai copper inventories has increased and the pressure on copper prices has increased
.
However, China's economic data performed strongly, indicating that the economy showed stability and improvement; At the same time, the current domestic copper mine inventory continues to consume, the supply of raw materials is tight, and the expectation of gradual recovery of demand in the future market still supports copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract broke through the lower edge of the triangle convergence, focusing on the support at the 49000 position below, and it is expected to be weak in the short term
.