Market risk aversion increased, and Shanghai copper was weak and volatile

Industry: ICSG expects refined copper production to grow by 2.
8% this year and slow down in 2020 at a growth rate of 1.
2%.

On the demand side, global apparent copper consumption is currently expected to increase by 2% this year and 1.
5%
in 2020 due to the development of electrification.
Therefore, in the context of insufficient supply of copper concentrate and strong demand, ICSG predicts that the global copper gap will still reach about 190,000 tons this year, and further rise to 250,000 tons in 2020
.

In terms of the market, Shanghai copper around 47500 yuan / ton line of weak finishing, close to the delivery cycle, the next month contract spread all the way to 120 yuan / ton line, morning holders quoted flat water copper premium 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, good copper premium 80 ~ 90 yuan / ton, after the spread opened to expand the trend, low-price sources are attractive, low-price sources are quickly collected, flat water copper up quotation to 30 ~ 40 yuan / ton, good copper quotation to 100 yuan / ton, market buying continues to ferment, transaction enthusiastic
。 Downstream inquiry increased to buy Xingxing, wet copper followed the market corresponding upward quotation, wet copper quotation from the discount of 50 yuan / ton narrowed to a discount of 20 yuan / ton around the transaction is still available
.
There are signs of stopping the decline in the market, and the intention of holders to push up the water is still not exhausted, but the high premium transaction has gradually shown pressure, and intraday market traders speculators are still market-dominant
.

In terms of stocks, LME copper stocks stood at 203,750 tonnes on May 13, down 7,725 tonnes
from the previous session.
As of May 10, 2019, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 194,208 tonnes, down 17,422 tonnes
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain low compared to the last five years
.

The main 1907 contract of Shanghai copper was weak and volatile during the day, as the market risk aversion increased after China's tough counterattack on US tariffs, and the overall trading was more cautious
.
In the spot market, due to the signs of stopping the decline in the market, the intention of holders to push up the water is still not exhausted, but the high premium transaction has gradually shown pressure, and intraday market traders speculators are still market-led
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1907 contract can consider selling high and low between 47,000-48,000 yuan / ton in the short term, and stop loss 300 yuan / ton
each.