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At the Tokyo rubber market at the end of last week, the daily market price was firm in the spot market, and the RSS far month price briefly hit an intraday high of 195.
7 yen under the influence of another attempt to break
upwards in the Shanghai rubber market.
It then closed slightly lower
in the late session under the pressure of the weekend's position adjustment as the USD/JPY exchange rate retreated, failing to break the previous high of 196.
7 yen.
A Thai official told a rubber industry conference in China that the Thai government is calling on rubber manufacturers to restrict exports, while rubber spot prices rose again over the weekend after a day of correction, continuing to provide short-term positive factors
for the futures market.
On the other hand, the United States, dissatisfied with Mexico's performance on immigration, decided to impose a 5% tariff
on Mexican goods.
For a while, the overall risk aversion in the financial market heated up again, coupled with China's official start of raising the tariff rate on U.
S.
goods from the weekend, Shanghai Rubber fell sharply by 2.
5% in late trading, and short-term speculative funds once again ended the market
.
The rubber market as a whole lacks medium-term upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, the May FOB price of No.
3 cigarette tablets on May 31 was around 59.
96 baht, up 0.
94 baht
from the previous session.
The May FOB price of No.
20 label rubber was around 50.
81 baht, up 0.
62 baht
from the previous session.
The USS spot price was around 53 baht, unchanged
from the previous session.
From a technical point of view, although the RSS far month contract price stands on the clouds, and the position of the short-term conversion line and the medium-term reference line, as well as the position of the late line and the price entity, all show a strong buy signal, but from the price action of the two days at the end of last week, the upper pressure is still heavy
.
Short-term bullishness and the improvement of technical indicators have made speculative funds continue to try to go long recently, but the macro economy does not support further breakthroughs
in rubber prices.
Last week's Tokyo rubber market, fueled by the still strong spot market, short-term speculative funds continue to seek long opportunities, especially after the new opening of the November contract, we can clearly observe the increase
in far month contract holdings.
On the other hand, the August contract, which previously led the front-month contract higher, supported the higher trend of the Tokyo rubber futures market, saw more profit-taking
.
As a result, the spread between near and far month contracts has narrowed
to a certain extent.
The spread between far-month contracts in the second half of last week briefly narrowed
in the direction of flat water.
The main factors
affecting the price change in the rubber market last week.
The first is the weather factor
in the production area that pushed the rubber market up the previous week.
The heat, dry weather that halted the closure of forests in China's Yunnan province eased last week, but Thai government officials said they would implement export restrictions as planned to give short-term speculators a positive material
.
With the rise and profit taking of short-term long funds in the Shanghai market, the main contract of Shanghai rubber oscillated
slightly at 12,000 yuan.
The far month contract in the Tokyo rubber market was affected by the spot price and the firm trend of the Shanghai market, and the November contract has been consolidating in the range of 190-195 yen after the new launch, while the May contract has remained above
the 210 yen line in June, July and August after the month of the month.
In terms of macroeconomic environment, the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions has made China and the United States begin to wake up a round of confrontation
in areas other than tariffs.
China's manufacturing PMI for May, released at the end of the month, fell below the watershed of 50 points, while the US GDP for the first quarter fell short of forecast
.
The negative impact of trade frictions on the world economy remains the main basis
for bearish bearishness on the Tokyo far month contract in the medium term.
