Market risk aversion eased, and the main shock of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly

Market focus: (1) The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded 56.
7 in November vs 53 expected and 53.
4 in the previous month, the highest since September 2014; the preliminary PMI of the services industry recorded 57.
7, 55.
3 expected, and 56.
9 in the previous month, the highest
since March 2015.
(2) China's total imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in October were 256619 tons, down from 355999 tons in September and far below the 418894 tons exported in October, and China became a net exporter
of aluminum for two consecutive months.

Spot analysis: On November 24, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15910-15950 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15930 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo said that the shipment was acceptable, and Jinchuan nickel continued to be in short supply, but most people maintained a cautious view, traders needed to stock up in small quantities, and the spot market currently continued to be weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 96,736 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,501 tons, a 6-day decline; On November 23, LME aluminum stocks were 1395525 tons, a daily decrease of 4,000 tons, a decline of 4 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract were 71240 lots, minus 3393 per day, 85128 short positions, 8674 lots per day, 13888 net positions, 5281 daily losses, long and short positions were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On November 24, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2012 fluctuated slightly
.
U.
S.
corporate activity grew at its fastest pace since 2015 in November, and market risk aversion eased
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, and the opening of export arbitrage led to an increase in domestic outflow, domestic spot and Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts were declining, and the tight supply made the market willing to hold prices higher, supporting the high operation of aluminum prices
.
However, alumina prices continue to weaken, and the high profits of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, the pressure on the supply side will gradually increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

Technically, the main 2012 contract position of Shanghai aluminum is reduced, and the mainstream short position reduction is large, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term
.