Market pessimism heats up, and the main force of Shanghai copper opens low and fluctuates

Market focus: US retail sales report for September was unexpectedly weak, reading well below market expectations and recording its first decline
in seven months.
The EU summit was held locally on the 17th and 18th, Brexit will be an important issue, and market optimism is rising
.
WBMS data shows that the global copper market has a supply shortage of 123,000 tons from January to August 2019, expanding
from 27,000 tons in January to July.
It is reported that China's copper TC floor price in the fourth quarter was finalized at $66 per tonne, up
from $55 per ton in the third quarter.

Spot analysis: On October 17, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 46670-46730 yuan / ton, with an average price of 46700 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton
per day.
After the copper price retreated, the holders had the willingness to hold the price, traders still had the willingness to receive the flat water copper, after the decline in the market, the downstream inquiry increased, but because the holder's quotation was firm and unwilling to reduce the price of shipment, the transaction was difficult to reach an agreement, traders in the premise of higher water under the premise of the willingness to enter the market has decreased, the supply and demand sides re-showed a long-seen stalemate
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 62,654 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,745 tons; LME copper stocks stood at 275575 tonnes on 16 October, up 600 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1912 contract are 69840 lots, with a daily increase of 299 lots, short positions are 86427 lots, a daily increase of 1012 lots, a net short position of 16587 lots, a daily increase of 713 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On October 17, the main force of Shanghai copper 1912 opened
low.
The US dollar was weighed on by weak retail sales data in September, the strengthening of Brexit expectations in the UK, and the increase in downward pressure on the global economy, rising pessimism and copper inventories, indicating a lack of significant improvement in downstream demand, increasing pressure on copper prices, although copper prices have increased due to strikes and protests in upstream copper mines recently, and copper supply concerns have increased, supporting copper prices
。 In terms of spot, after the copper price retreated, the holders had the willingness to hold the price, and traders still had the willingness to receive the flat water copper on the dip, and after the market fell, the downstream inquiry increased, but because the holders' quotations were firm and unwilling to reduce the price of shipments, it was difficult to reach an agreement
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract of Shanghai copper focuses on the support of the 46500 position below, and is expected to recover
slightly in the short term.