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Yesterday, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high and low, and the pressure at the 20-day moving average was obvious, and the current copper price is mainly volatile in the short-term platform
.
The inventory in the spot market has increased, the holders are eager to exchange cash, the supply of goods is gradually increasing, and various copper varieties have room for price reduction, and the price difference between each other has narrowed
.
In general, the transaction has the characteristics of oversupply, highlighting that downstream consumption is not strong, and traders are more difficult
to ship.
On the macro front, China's July M2 money supply was 8.
1% y/y vs.
8.
5%
previously.
At the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 214.
13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.
7%.
It shows that there is a certain tightening of liquidity and credit, and copper prices may come under pressure
in the short term.
In the context of weak supply and demand, it is speculated that Shanghai copper will continue to consolidate and gather momentum, waiting for the choice
of later direction.
On the supply side, domestic electrolytic copper production in July was slightly higher than expected, and imports of unwrought copper and copper products hit a new high since February this year, indicating improved demand
.
Refined copper TC continues to be sluggish and copper rod processing fees continue to be low, indicating a tight supply situation, but it is not currently affecting
the production of smelters and processors.
Recently, the mine has frequently released tightening signals, causing supply concerns, but the market response has been flat.
The short-term copper demand field is also weak, the downstream copper operating rate in July is not satisfactory, real estate sales investment is gradually tightening, and downstream demand such as home appliances and automobiles has not improved
.
Short-term demand is insufficient, the speed of outbound is slow, and domestic inventory has accumulated
to a certain extent.
In August, the Sino-US trade war continued to ferment, resulting in strong risk aversion in the global market, copper prices rebounded after a dive, and the import profit window opened and closed
.
In terms of fundamentals, downstream trade buying has decreased, coupled with the domestic accumulation stage, yesterday's holders were eager to exchange cash, took the initiative to reduce the premium in order to seek transactions, and the transaction only improved slightly
.
At present, there is a phased rebound, but weak demand has led to pressure on copper prices, the weak trend remains unchanged, and the rebound space is limited
.
