Market optimism weakened, and the main shock of Shanghai aluminum was bearish

Market focus: According to media reports, the U.
S.
-China trade talks have hit obstacles
in the procurement of agricultural products.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech on Wednesday that the Fed is unlikely to adjust interest rates
anytime soon as the economy remains on its current trajectory.
In 2019, China's annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to reach 2.
14 million tons, including 150,000 tons of resumption of production capacity and 1.
99 million tons of new production capacity
.
China's electrolytic aluminum output in October was about 2.
97 million tons, a slight increase from 2.
95 million tons in September; From January to October, the output totaled about 29.
76 million tons, down 0.
87%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On November 14, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13910-13950 yuan / ton, the average price was 13930 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 30 yuan / ton
.
Due to the approaching monthly delivery and the price at a relatively low level, the shipment efforts of the holders have converged compared with the previous two days, and the middlemen are still very active in receiving goods at low prices, and the trading between the two sides is acceptable, but the market is still not as hot as the previous two weeks
due to the lack of participation of large households.
Downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, and the receipt of goods is mediocre, without much bright spots
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 66,571 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 4,836 tons per day; On November 12, LME aluminum stocks were 942125 tons, an increase of 1,625 tons per day, and recovered
for the first time after 19 consecutive days.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract were 67730 lots, a daily increase of 302 lots, short positions were 78203 lots, a daily decrease of 128 lots, a net short position of 10473 lots, a daily decrease of 430 lots, more short positions, and a decrease
in net short.

On November 14, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2001 fluctuated short
.
The Federal Reserve hinted that easing policy is close to a halt, the dollar is running strongly, the Sino-US trade situation is uncertain and recovering, market optimism is weakening, while upstream alumina production has increased, inventory accumulation has suppressed prices, and electrolytic aluminum is expected to be put into production, and the pressure on aluminum prices is greater, but the speed of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, and electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to dematerialize, forming some support
for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the shipment of cargo holders has converged compared with the previous two days, the middlemen are still very active in receiving goods at low prices, and the trading of both sides is acceptable, but the market is still due to the lack of participation of large households, the trading heat is not as hot as the previous two weeks, and the downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2001 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position significantly, and the price difference between near and far months widened, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.