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Last week, Shanghai aluminum rose gratifyingly, touching the 18,000 mark on the 14th and 15th, with a maximum of 18,045 yuan / ton, a new high in Shanghai aluminum in ten years; After the shock to the 18,000 line, the increase was %
.
Due to rumors of Xinjiang production restrictions on Wednesday, bulls entered the market violently to pull up the market, although the subsequent rumors were falsified, but the market optimism was high during the peak season, and aluminum prices continued to rise
.
On the supply side, compared with March, the overall domestic electrolytic aluminum production in April will fall by 100,000 tons to 3.
239 million tons, the net import volume will rise by 50,000 tons to 150,000 tons, and the overall supply side is expected to decline slightly to 3.
389 million tons
.
It stemmed from the impact of the two dual-control policies in Inner Mongolia on the production capacity restrictions of electrolytic aluminum in early March and the delay in the arrival of imported goods due to the blockage of the Suez Canal at the end of March
.
In addition, the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises will begin this month, and Baimine Debao plans to start three sections of 100,000 tons of production capacity this week, and Shaanxian Hengkang will also achieve partial production capacity in late April
.
This week's profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to more than 5,000 yuan / ton, which has a significant boost to future production
.
Under the combined impact, the overall supply side in April is expected to be lower than in March, but it is still strong
compared with previous years.
In terms of demand, this week's spot market holders have a positive attitude towards shipments, under the pressure of rising orders, some processors gradually adapt to high aluminum prices and begin to trade at a high price, but the overall fear of heights downstream still exists, most companies maintain the willingness to purchase based on rigid demand, and the overall liquidity of the market is better than last week
.
After the Qingming Festival, the peak season has officially entered, and the speed of aluminum rods is faster, and there is even a shortage of inventory; The consumption of aluminum profiles for construction is also better than before; The speed of destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory this week has accelerated significantly compared with last week, and the peak season in late April will be gradually cashed in
.
The social inventory of aluminum ingots in the week was 1.
183 million tons, down 45,000 tons from the previous week, and the speed of destocking of aluminum ingot social stocks accelerated compared with last week, but the overall destocking speed was still lower than the same period of previous years, and it is expected that the social inventory will fall to about
1.
1 million tons at the end of April.
If the destocking speed continues to slow down in the later stage, the fundamentals will drag down the aluminum price to continue to rise, and the aluminum price may be in a high range; If the speed of destocking accelerates in the later stage, the demand growth rate will drive the plate upward, and aluminum prices will continue to have full upward momentum
after standing firm at the 18000 line.
