Market optimism heats up, and the main force of Shanghai copper rushes to the top and fluctuates

Market Focus: (1) The U.
S.
Treasury Department announced that China is no longer classified as a currency manipulator
.
(2) In December 2019, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 1.
928 million tons, and the annual import volume was 21.
99 million tons, an increase of 11.
6%
from 19.
704 million tons in 2018.
(3) In December 2019, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 527,000 tons, and the annual import volume was 4.
979 million tons, down 6%
from 5.
298 million tons in 2018.

Spot analysis: On January 14, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 48940-49040 yuan / ton, the average price of 48990 yuan / ton, daily increase of 400 yuan / ton
.
SMM reported that copper prices rebounded, the price spread widened in the next month, the downstream receiving volume only held rigid demand, mainly led by trade speculators, the transaction market conditions stabilized, but traders are reluctant to follow, fear that the space for further lifting is limited, the strength of the premium is also limited to the pre-delivery price difference factors, the market may present a short-lived situation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 67,503 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 1,721 tons; On January 13, LME copper stocks were 130,000 tons, down 2,725 tons per day, down 34 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract were 97721 lots, a daily increase of 6930 lots, short positions were 99673 lots, a daily increase of 6095 lots, a net short position of 1952 lots, a daily decrease of 835 lots, long and short increased, and net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On January 14, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2003 rushed high and oscillated
.
China and the United States are about to sign the first phase of the trade agreement, and the United States abandons China as a currency manipulator, market optimism heats up, while the current global stock shows a downward trend, of which Shanghai copper inventories have fallen, which supports copper prices, but China's copper mine imports have increased sharply year-on-year, copper mine supply performance is abundant, while the recent appreciation of the RMB, the import profit window opened slightly, and copper imports in December increased sharply year-on-year, which is not conducive to inventory decomposition, copper price upward momentum can weaken
。 In terms of spot, copper prices have rebounded, the price difference has widened in the next month, and the downstream receiving volume has only held rigid demand, mainly led by trade speculators, and the transaction market has stabilized, but traders are reluctant to follow, and there is limited room for further
lifting.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper runs above the moving average group, and the daily KDJ indicator golden cross, which is expected to be strong in the short term
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2003 contract can be long at 49100 yuan / ton at a pullback, and the stop loss is 48950 yuan / ton
.