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LME aluminum rose slightly on Wednesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was quoted at $1822 / ton, up 0.
22%
per day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, with the highest 14115 yuan / ton and the lowest 13970 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14080 yuan / ton, up 0.
39% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 32,900 lots, with a daily increase of 5,326 lots; The position was 103,500 lots, an increase of 4,213 lots
per day.
The basis is 380 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai and aluminum in 2002-2003 widened to 75 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The ISM non-manufacturing index in the United States was 55 in December, better than market expectations of 54.
5 and the previous value of 53.
9
.
(2) Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired dozens of surface-to-surface missiles
at the Assad Air Base of the US military in Iraq.
(3) U.
S.
aluminum exports in November were 5827667 kg, higher than 5045213 kg last month; The cumulative amount from January to November is 53255369 kg
.
Spot analysis, spot A00 aluminum reported 14440-14480 yuan / ton, the average price was 14460 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market supply is relatively sufficient, the cargo holders are more active, the middlemen are also active, the two sides traded well, and the actual transaction was better than the previous two days
.
The downstream intraday receipt status has also improved compared with the previous two days, and there is some stocking, but it is expected that the active procurement status will not be sustainable
in the future.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 41,990 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 275 tons; On January 7, LME aluminum stocks were 1451575 tons, down 11,625 tons per day, down 11 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 71357 lots, a daily increase of 1723 lots, short positions were 75137 lots, a daily increase of 3080 lots, a net short position of 3780 lots, a daily increase of 1357 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: On January 8, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2003 rose sharply
.
The US service industry PMI data for December was better than expected, market optimism rose, while tensions in the Middle East drove crude oil higher, resulting in other related energy sources rising, coupled with the decline in domestic alumina production, the support for aluminum prices increased, but the recent electrolytic aluminum inventory from the low level has rebounded slightly, coupled with the year-end downstream demand has weakened, inventory dematerialization has slowed down, superimposed electrolytic aluminum is expected to resume production in the future, forming some pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, the intraday market supply is more sufficient, the shippers are more active, the middlemen are also active, the two sides are trading well, the actual transaction is better than the previous two days, and the downstream intraday receiving status is also better than the previous two days
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MACD green column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream bulls increased their positions large, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.
