Market hedging demand continues to release The trend of internal and external aluminum prices continues to diverge

From the fundamental point of view, with the continuous adjustment of alumina production capacity, the stop trend of alumina prices has finally come
.
However, subject to the continuous interference of sudden events, the supply and demand structure of the alumina market is still facing the unfavorable situation of continuing to adjust, so the current rebound foundation is still unstable
.
In the current situation of sharply higher production profits, the active start of aluminum plants has been significantly enhanced, and the general acceleration of the resumption of production progress of some enterprises has continued to narrow the apparent gap
.
At the same time, the recovery expectations on the demand side before the Jinjiu peak season are also overestimated
.
In the current policy environment, the environmental protection restrictions of parade blue are universal policy constraints
.
And under the current role of speculative funds rushing in advance, this round of trends may have ended in stages, so swing operations may be more appropriate
.

On the macro front, on Friday evening, China introduced countermeasures, imposing tariffs on $75 billion of US goods, and Sino-US trade escalated, adding to market pessimism
.
In addition, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for August released by the United States on Friday fell to 49.
9, the first time since September 2009 that it fell below the 50-rise line, and the economy is under pressure and raises concerns
about consumption.
Overall, macro pessimism will suppress aluminum price performance
.

Supply and demand side: In the past two weeks, the accident of the aluminum plant has been concentrated, first the production capacity of Weiqiao, Shandong Province affected by the flood has stopped production, it is understood that the flood affected the production capacity of about 600,000 tons, and the follow-up maintenance time is at least four months
.
However, due to the existence of idle capacity in Weiqiao, the follow-up focus is on the restart of idle capacity
.
Last Monday, Xinjiang Xinfa had a sudden accident, an explosion of leakage furnace occurred in the electrolysis workshop, which caused the shutdown of more than 360 more than 500KA electrolyzers, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 500,000 tons; Immediately afterwards, due to heavy rainfall, some electrolyzers in the Aba aluminum plant in Sichuan stopped production, affecting the production capacity of more than 20,000 tons
.
The cumulative impact of these three companies is about 1.
1 million tons, which leads to a revision
of supply-side expectations.
The supply side is expected to tighten in the coming month
.
On the consumption side, it will enter September, the consumption season is approaching, the improvement expectation is rising, and inventory is expected to decrease
.
Cost side: The average price of alumina three networks continued to rise slightly last week, and there is still a slight upward expectation in the future, and the cost side support is consolidated
.

At present, the key factor supporting aluminum prices is that the short-term supply and demand gap has widened due to accidents on the supply side, and in addition, near September, the market is expected to improve on the consumer side, and inventories are expected to decline
.
The above factors will support aluminum prices
in the short term.
However, Sino-US trade problems have intensified, and it is expected that aluminum prices may pull back due to macro sentiment at the beginning of the week, and then aluminum prices are expected to rise
when the news is digested.
Operation suggestions: hold long positions at the low level in the early stage, and pay attention to the long opportunities
after the pullback.