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On Friday, the Shanghai copper 1703 contract opened at 45300 yuan / ton, after the opening of the RMB rose slightly, bears began to retreat, copper prices slowly rose to near the daily moving average, around 45500 yuan / ton consolidation, and then with the fall of iron ore, dragged commodities down collectively, again attracted short plates to enter, and a small number of long outflow, copper prices down to 45090 yuan / ton, the lower lead pierced the 10-day moving average, bears took profit in time, copper prices were slightly revised upward, and the center of gravity rose back to consolidation around 45280 yuan / ton, It closed at the small black candle at 45350 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton
.
Intraday Shanghai copper still maintained a wide range of fluctuations within the moving average, from the perspective of the plate, the downward support and upward pressure, copper prices temporarily maintained a consolidation trend
.
In terms of the external market, to undertake the overnight decline, London copper opened low at 5584.
5 US dollars / ton, Asian trading session, London copper followed the Shanghai copper short-term rush to 5608 US dollars / ton, at the end of the noon, domestic black colored series fell sharply, commodities diving collectively, London copper began to fall, breaking through the daily moving average, dragging the daily average down, at the end of the Asian session tried to reverse the daily average unsuccessful, into the European session, with the sharp recovery of the US index, copper prices continued to fall, as of 17:48, London copper reported 5557.
5 US dollars / ton
。 The rise of the US dollar index within the day suppressed the trend of copper prices, the center of gravity of London copper moved down, focusing on the non-farm payrolls data, expectations were not as good as the previous value, the US dollar index is difficult to continue to rise, London copper may be able to stop falling on the 5-day moving average rebound
.
On the macro front, China's December Caixin manufacturing PMI hit its highest since January 2013 at the beginning of the week and beat expectations, but it fell short of the pressure on copper prices caused by the stronger US dollar in December
, which exceeded expectations.
After the Fed's December FOMC meeting minutes said that the uncertainty that Trump's administration will bring to the economy, the dollar came under pressure and copper prices were partially benefited
.
At present, the market is focusing on the US non-farm payrolls data and its guiding role
against the US dollar.
In terms of the market, Shanghai copper fell slightly, speculators entered the market to continue to close low-priced goods, now copper discount further narrowed, wet copper still did not see significant improvement, and flat water copper price spread widened, noon flat water copper price has narrowed to a discount of 70 yuan / ton, the price of premium copper narrowed to a discount of about 20 yuan / ton, downstream gradually enter the market to receive goods, the transaction is gradually warmed under the leadership of middlemen, the market is looking forward to next week ushering in the pre-Spring Festival stocking tide
.
Approaching delivery, the price difference in the next month is still above 100 yuan / ton, and the spot will gradually turn to a rising state next week, but the flat water copper price difference will be larger
.
In the afternoon period, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper moved down, traders narrowed the discount, good copper has been flat, but the weekend market recognition is not high, the concentrated transaction is still within the discount of 30 yuan / ton - discount 20 yuan / ton, flat water copper discount narrowed to 90 yuan / ton - 50 yuan / ton, the afternoon market bargain trading can continue, still mainly concentrated among
traders.
On the whole, short-term domestic copper prices are under pressure, copper short-term 44000 support is strong, copper recent fundamentals have not changed much, difficult to support a new high, to effectively rebound need to first break through the upper resistance, wait for the copper market to further clarity
.
In terms of spot, the market is looking forward to the stocking tide
before the Spring Festival next week.
Approaching delivery, the price difference is still above 100 yuan / ton in the next month, and the spot will gradually turn to a rising state
next week.
