Market fundamentals are still strong and support the bottom of aluminum prices

Today's Shanghai aluminum main month 2109 contract, opening 20110 yuan / ton, the highest intraday 20190 yuan / ton, the lowest 20055 yuan / ton, settlement 20115 yuan / ton, the end of the close to 20090 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan
.
Today, after the high opening of Shanghai aluminum, it oscillates around the moving average, the supply-side power limit range continues to expand, resulting in a continuous decline in production, electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to deteriorate, but downstream consumption is in the seasonal off-season
.

Today's London aluminum wide volatility, LME three-month Beijing time at 15:01 at 2591 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars, or 0.
21%,
from the previous trading day's settlement price.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 20020-20060 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 20150-20210 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan; China reported 20050-20090 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan
.
In the spot market, the receiver actively purchases at the low, the holder has a certain willingness to raise the price, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the overall transaction activity is average
.

In terms of news, Henan's power rationing policy has affected production, this time Henan Province's large industrial enterprises will limit power by 50% according to the situation, industrial enterprises below ten kilovolts will all stop production, and limit power materials for thirteen weeks or more, and aluminum ingot social inventory still continues to degrade, and it is expected that aluminum will rise
.

At present, the domestic market aluminum fundamentals are still strong, Monday aluminum ingot social library again to the warehouse, of which Henan Gongyi area to the warehouse range is large, mainly Longhai line transportation although restored, but Henan local thermal coal is only in short supply, in order to ensure the supply of coal, aluminum ingot transportation has been delayed
.
At the same time, over the weekend, Guangxi Power Grid also issued a document requiring electrolytic aluminum companies to strictly follow the requirements to stagger peak power consumption, further exacerbating market concerns
about supply.

Subsequently, the impact of power cuts in many places on the aluminum supply side is more far-reaching, and the local aluminum processing materials enterprises in Henan on the consumer side have limited power and reduced production for three weeks, but the power cuts and production cuts of aluminum plants in Yunnan, Guangxi and other places may last for a long time, mainly because the problem of coal shortage cannot be solved
in the short term.
If the subsequent Henan transportation continues to protect coal, there is still the possibility of dematerialization in the social treasury on Thursday, which supports the bottom of aluminum prices
.
However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the risk of high pullback, and it is recommended to pay attention to factors such as the low season of consumption, weakening macro demand, cooling at the national level, and reduction of export tax rebates
.