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Recently, the commodity market has been exhausted, black series and chemicals continue to fall, and the Shanghai rubber night market once again updated its low to 15220
.
Although there is a technical rebound demand after the continuous decline, the fundamentals lack of positive stimulation, and the weak trend of the tianjiao market is difficult to change
.
With the downward suppression of the upper daily moving average, the weekly average is pressed downward, indicating that the Shanghai rubber trend is bearish, looking down at the 60-fold weekly average between
14000-14500.
On the market front, while optimistic about this year's downstream market, price-led supply growth requires a gradual follow-up
by demand.
The domestic natural rubber market has a relatively big change
in the market environment before and after the Spring Festival.
First of all, the expected impact of the flood in Thailand was not so serious, but the news of Thailand's storage dumping poured cold water on the market, and from the current auction situation, the bidding pressure and the probability of streaming auction are also relatively large
.
At the same time, the downstream resistance to the continued high futures prices, the spot trading price is difficult to keep up with the futures rise, in addition, the futures spot spread between 1700-1800 has seen an influx of arbitrage orders, but also accelerated the correction
of futures prices.
On the macro front, although the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, this round of tightening met with the first negative vote, and maintained the number of interest rate hikes this year and next year unchanged; Expectations that the pace of interest rate hikes will accelerate were disappointed, dragging down the dollar and U.
S.
Treasury yields on
the day.
In the face of many uncertainties in the external environment, as well as domestic deleveraging and risk prevention constraints, the characteristics of monetary policy to remain "neutral and prudent" in 2017 have become more and more obvious
.
Since August last year, the central bank [Weibo] has begun to adjust its open market operation strategy, "locking in the short and long", raising short-end interest rates, and with the rise of the interest rate center, the current momentum of social financing growth has slowed down significantly, and as bond yields climb, the scale of bond financing has also contracted
.
If the financing needs of entities are difficult to meet in the future, it will further restrict the sustainability of investment, thereby putting pressure on
the stability of the economy in the future.
In the later stage, the supply and demand situation in the second quarter is of great significance to the guidance of the price of the whole year, from the upstream point of view, after the price rebounded from the bottom last year, the opening sentiment in April must be high, pay attention to the weather conditions
.
From a downstream point of view, although the current demand is not bad, the economic operation after the "short-lived" high in the first quarter, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it will face the ensuing downward pressure
.
From the perspective of seasonal rules, Shanghai rubber will rise in April and May after the correction at the beginning of the year, and then face the peak of cash transfer again, and the overall does not look too short and dare not look at how high, speculation and value preservation need to be cautious participation
.
