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On Thursday, Shanghai copper rushed back down, the intraday market gave up gains, and closed slightly lower at the end of the day, the main monthly 2210 contract opened at 62290 yuan / ton, and the daily close was 62430 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton, down 0.
19%.
After the rate hike boots landed, the metal weakened for a while, but the market has basically digested this expectation, in addition, under the warming atmosphere of the futures market, nonferrous metals have recovered their decline, and the decline of Shanghai copper finishing has narrowed
.
In terms of spot, on September 22, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63170-63210 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton; Liter 640-liter 680, down 120 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the rising water is still at a high level, the holders want to exchange cash at the high, the stocking sentiment of the receiver is not obvious, and the overall transaction performance is average
.
In terms of inventories, as of September 22, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 4,775 tons, or 4.
05%, to 122775 tons; London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks rose to their highest level
since July 11.
As of September 22, the previous copper futures warehouse receipt was 6,686 tons, down 1,260 tons
from the previous day.
On the supply side, according to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global copper market was short of 490,000 tons from January to July 2022, and 283,000 tons for the whole year of 2021
.
July refined copper production was 2.
0155 million tons, and demand was 2.
1763 million tons
.
In the first seven months of this year, global mine copper production was 12.
45 million mt, up 1.
4%
from a year earlier.
Over the same period, global refined copper production was 14.
3 million mt, up 0.
7% year-on-year, with China and India up 203,000 mt and 38,000 mt
respectively.
On the demand side, global copper demand was 14.
78 million mt from January to July 2022, up 2.
8%
from a year earlier.
China's apparent demand was 8.
19 million tons, up 3.
8%
year-on-year.
China can report a 2.
6%
increase in the production of semi-finished products.
U.
S.
refined copper production was 587,400 mt, up 28,700 mt
from a year earlier.
In addition, the actual spot trading market performance is not satisfactory, downstream enterprises trading is unsatisfactory, has entered the end of the golden nine, consumption compared with the same period of "ice and fire two days", but the market for the gold nine silver ten still expectations, superimposed terminal related support policies are more clear, therefore, consumer demand is still good
.
On the whole, the Fed once appeared "landing market" after raising interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, and the dollar was boosted to a 20-year high, which suppressed the nonferrous market, but the market has fully expected this rate hike, and the commodity trend has basically digested expectations, superimposed on the market atmosphere to warm up, the nonferrous market is generally red, and Shanghai copper also recovered some of the decline after falling under pressure
.
In addition, under the collision of strong fundamentals and weak macro, the market focuses more on weak macro, so the overall center of Shanghai copper has shifted
slightly.
