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Yesterday's Shanghai aluminum AL2012 maintained an upward trend, up 165 yuan in the daily session, up 1.
06% during the day, opening at 15,785 yuan, the highest intraday 15,945 yuan, the lowest at 15,650 yuan, to the close at 15,755 yuan
.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices fell slightly, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and production profits are still in a high position from a historical perspective
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in October, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.
Macroscopic: On November 15, China, Japan and South Korea and other 15 countries signed RCEP, the regional economic cooperation agreement covers 1/3 of the world's population, the conclusion of RCEP will promote regional economic integration and coordinated development, promote regional trade freedom and global economic and trade cooperation in the context of the global economic and trade environment, China's a number of macroeconomic data recently released, strong performance will promote aluminum prices to continue to
rise.
The global epidemic is still ferocious, with more than 250,000 deaths in the United States on the 18th, exceeding the estimates of the number of deaths in the United States during the epidemic by experts from the White House new crown epidemic response team in March
.
In terms of fundamentals, alumina remained sluggish and anode prices continued to rebound; The new production of electrolytic aluminum has stagnated, and the output will continue to increase; On the 19th, SMM aluminum ingot inventory reported 615,000 tons, down 14,000 tons from last Thursday, and the change stagnated during the week, but the supply of the spot market is still relatively tight; Inner Mongolia Blizzard logistics shipments have been affected for several days and will recover
in the near future.
In terms of stocks: LME stocks yesterday dematerialized 5,150 tons to 1,416,700 tons, the previous inventory accumulated 861 tons to 232,600 tons last week, and the social bank increased by 05,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 16 to 622,000 tons, and the social stocks showed signs of
turning around.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, forming a strong support
for the price.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of the supply side is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in November further releases a certain suppression of the price of electrolytic aluminum, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
Overall, the global manufacturing industry recovery is strong, aluminum fundamentals have improved, Biden's victory after the multilateral cooperation of countries smoother, the global economic recovery has been promoted, it is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will continue to be strong and volatile, pay attention to social inventory data, whether there will be inventory continued accumulation performance, it is recommended to continue to hold
.
