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Last week, the PVC futures market fell rapidly; Due to the decline in steel and high inventories
.
Technically, PVC fell back to the important lower boundary of the previous period, and its strong support was 7860 yuan / ton
.
At the macro level, the effect of the policy has not yet appeared
.
It is estimated that the conditions for an intermediate rebound are not ripe and will take time to grind to the bottom
.
On the macro front, wide credit and stable growth this year are the main tone of the domestic economy, and GDP growth is set at the level
of 5.
5%.
To this end, the engine that guides the domestic economy has returned to the traditional industries
of real estate and infrastructure.
Since June, Shanghai's production and life have been unblocked in a comprehensive and orderly manner; Increased government special debt; Unprecedented support for infrastructure
, real estate and automobiles.
It is foreseeable that the state is speeding up the implementation of the "package of policies to stabilize the economy
".
In terms of spot, the mainstream quotations in East China fell sharply this week to 8300 yuan / ton; The basis is +293 yuan/ton
.
Warehouse orders, the number of futures registered warehouse receipts increased slightly to 4,227 lots (21,000 tons).
In terms of inventory, as of June 10, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 328,900 tons, +8.
12% week-on-week; +115.
8%
YoY.
In terms of PVC starts, the overall operating load of the domestic PVC industry decreased slightly this week
.
As of June 16, the overall operating load of PVC was 76.
94%, -1.
03% month-on-month; Among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.
72% and the ethylene method was 66.
66%.
It is reported that there were relatively many PVC maintenance devices in June, and the maintenance loss is expected to reach 220,000 tons, and the starting load and output in June decreased
slightly compared with May.
At present, PVC enterprises have entered the maintenance season; However, weak demand has led to higher inventories and lower prices; And technically touched important support
.
In the future, for the market to produce a medium-level rebound, it must rely on the recovery
of terminal demand.
Pay close attention to the effect of macro policies and the performance of the
"Golden Nine" peak season.
