Market demand has not improved significantly, and short-term aluminum price volatility is weak

In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1577 US dollars / ton in the morning, the narrow range of shock at the beginning of the session tested the resistance of the 10-day moving average, and then basically followed the domestic Shanghai aluminum trend first suppressed and then rose, first down below the 5-day moving average, rebounded up to touch the daily moving average, entered the European trading session long and short around the daily average to compete, as of 17:30 Lun aluminum 1574 US dollars / ton, the evening data surface is light, pay attention to the domestic Shanghai aluminum trend on the guidance
of Lun aluminum.

On the macro front, the US CPI rose 1.
1% year-on-year in August, higher than the 1% expected, and the 0.
3% month-on-month was also higher than the expected 0.
2%.

Core CPI rose 0.
2% m/m and 2.
3% y/y, both higher than expected
.
Core CPI grew at its highest year-on-year pace in six months, expectations of interest rate hikes rebounded, the dollar strengthened, and non-ferrous metals were pressured and frustrated
.

In terms of the market, the last trading day of the aluminum month, the price difference of the following month narrowed to around 240 yuan / ton, less arrivals during the festival, coupled with the implementation of the vehicle limit re-rule on September 21, the market is worried that the arrival of aluminum ingots will be affected, the middleman is willing to receive goods positively, some are downstream in advance preparation, the positive willingness of the market to receive goods, promote the willingness of the holders to raise the price, in the early stage of the transaction, the transaction is concentrated at 12400 yuan / ton, the later period of the holder is willing to sell strongly, the market is difficult to find the shipping merchant, Shanghai transaction rose to 12430 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction rose to 12440-12450 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area also encountered crazy pickup, low-price sources were quickly digested
by the market.
The overall transaction is active, and it is difficult to find suitable sources in the market
.
The market's worried mentality may boost the high premium of aluminum prices after
tomorrow's monthly change.
In the late afternoon, the center of gravity of aluminum moved slightly down in the month, and the holders maintained their midday sales attitude, and it was difficult for the market to find suitable sources
.

In terms of the industry, due to the substandard of environmental protection transformation, Henan Luoyang Xiangjiang Wanji Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
has received a fine of 96.
63 million yuan from the Xin'an County Environmental Protection Bureau, and the environmental protection transformation of Henan aluminum enterprises will have a continuous impact on the downstream processing industry; A super-large bauxite mine with reserves of more than 100 million tons was discovered in Daozhen Autonomous County, Guizhou, with a potential economic value of 22 billion yuan
.

According to statistics, on September 19, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 300,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last Monday; the downstream procurement increased significantly after the premium of aluminum prices, and the arrival volume was quickly digested, driving the inventory to fall, giving aluminum price support
.
On the market, with the delivery of Shanghai aluminum 1609 for the month, the risk of spot premium decline has been released, and the short-term decline in aluminum prices has slowed down, and the weak narrow range is dominant
.

Overall, aluminum inventories continue to rebound in the short term, aluminum profits continue to increase, enterprises resume production, increase the desire to increase production, and new production capacity continues to release, while the peak season effect brought by gold nine silver ten has not been reflected, downstream demand has not been clearly improved, or formed a certain pressure
on aluminum prices.
At the technical level, the main 20-day moving average of Shanghai aluminum crossed the 40-day moving average, and the downward momentum of the Bollinger band is obvious, but the lower Bollinger band still has a certain supporting role, the downward space is limited, and the short-term aluminum price shock is expected to be weak
.