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Recently, copper prices have shown a pattern of high volatility, the last day's refinery shipments are relatively small, some traders have financial pressure before the holiday to ship for cash, the market transaction has room for price reduction but is small, and the downstream receiving is also based on rigid demand, and the willingness to actively replenish stocks before the holiday is not very obvious
.
In terms of imported copper, although the market transactions are mostly concentrated in the source of goods arriving at the end of June and the beginning of July, and because of the relative shortage of the current supply, traders are more willing to raise prices, but the foreign trade copper market price decline has led to weaker demand, and the transaction is a high stalemate
.
At present, it is close to the holiday, so under such circumstances, copper prices may temporarily fall into a
short-term shock pattern.
In terms of spot, Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate at a high level at 47,700 yuan / ton
.
Although the morning market continued the previous day's spot premium of 180~190 yuan.
tons, but there is almost no transaction, the buying is weak, the financial pressure before the holiday makes the shipment of many cash-in-house, the holder is actively expanding the premium, flat water copper quotation to 160 ~ 170 yuan / ton, the lowest pressure price to 150 yuan / ton, good copper quotation to premium 170 yuan / ton There is room for pressure price, wet copper follows the market down to below 100 yuan / ton
.
In the last two days before the holiday, the shipment of holders was concentrated, the market supply was abundant, the market consumption was weak, the activity of the trade market was difficult to increase, and the downstream did not have the willingness to replenish a large amount before the holiday, still maintaining rigid demand, and the performance of the holders took the initiative to lead the reduction of premium transactions
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor
for commodities.
In terms of fundamentals, there are not many projects to increase copper mine production in 2020 on the raw material side, copper concentrate long-term TC and imported crude copper long-term single Benchmark have both fallen sharply compared with 2019, and the tension between raw material supply and smelting capacity still exists
.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper and copper imports expanded significantly, and domestic refined copper and copper production increased significantly, which is related to the increase in grid investment in the second half of the year and the marginal improvement of automobiles, air conditioners and other products, and is also partly based on the market's
good expectations for infrastructure construction in 2020 and good post-cycle consumption of real estate.
However, it should be noted that the State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 408 billion yuan, which is expected to be 8.
8% lower than the 450 billion yuan in 2019, and the sharp reduction in grid investment will have a certain impact
on copper consumption.
In addition, it should be noted that at present, copper prices showing a strong trend may stimulate the acceleration of new production capacity or even exceed expectations, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side
.
