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Shanghai aluminum has been strong in recent days, and then rushed up to touch 15500
.
In the past two weeks, due to transportation reasons, the arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the delivery is brought forward to today, which may be slightly squeezed pressure
.
Generally, large-scale arrival inventory will increase rapidly after the holiday, so aluminum prices still have a negative impact
.
However, on the whole, this year's accumulation is significantly slower than in previous years, showing that downstream consumption is indeed strong, and it is estimated that the high point of inventory after the holiday is about 110-1 million tons, which is also a low level
in the same period.
If the domestic epidemic situation does not worsen, the resumption of work after the holiday will be faster than in previous years, and the rise in aluminum prices in the medium term is expected to be stable
.
In terms of news, the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on adjusting the electricity price policy, strictly in accordance with national regulations for the implementation of differential electricity price policy for eight industries of electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, caustic soda, cement, steel, yellow phosphorus and zinc smelting, which constitutes a certain support for aluminum prices and increases the confidence of holders to hold prices, but the overall inventory remains unchanged
.
On the supply side, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum has maintained a steady rise, but it is worth noting that scrap aluminum recycling companies have begun to take holidays one after another, downstream automotive alloy ingot demand is strong, January automobile sales maintained a growth trend, scrap aluminum overall tight, overall, aluminum inventory is still at a relatively low level, and overseas orders are still picking up month-on-month, in good consumption expectations, aluminum prices are expected to support strongly
.
With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the domestic market has entered the holiday atmosphere, and the non-ferrous metal market has shown obvious off-season characteristics
.
On the other hand, risk appetite in global financial markets has been frequently switched recently, and the volatility of various asset prices, especially stock markets and commodities, has intensified
.
At present, the "pro-cyclical" varieties led by copper and aluminum are limited by the weakening of supply and demand in the traditional off-season in the uncertainty of macro expectations, pay attention to the far-reaching impact of the cancellation of electrolytic aluminum electricity preferences in Inner Mongolia and other places on the market, and pay attention to the rebound opportunity
after the pullback of copper and aluminum after the short-term price shock.
