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On January 4, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures opened at 18170 yuan / ton, and the highest intraday touch today was 18195 yuan / ton, and the lowest test was 17880 yuan / ton; As of the morning close, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell by 2.
40%, tentatively reported at 17890 yuan / ton
.
In the external market, as of now, LME aluminum opened at $2318.
50 / ton today, the highest price was $2330.
00 / ton, the lowest price was $2309.
00 / ton, and the provisional price was $2314.
00 / ton
.
At present, the main focus of the supply side is on the production reduction in Guizhou, where two power cuts and production cuts may lead to a less than expected increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum production in December, but due to the resumption of production in Sichuan, Guangxi and other regions, the overall impact is limited
.
Short-term downstream consumption is in the off-season, aluminum demand at home and abroad is declining, approaching the end of the year, downstream starts are declining, spot market transactions are light, and aluminum downstream leading enterprises are starting to fall
.
On the whole, the pattern of weak supply and demand continues, and consumption is expected to remain weak before the Spring Festival, and Shanghai aluminum is mainly operated under pressure and shock
.
After the New Year's Day, the aluminum ingot society accumulation is obvious, the weekly accumulation of the holiday increased by 14%, the aluminum price is under pressure weakening, the later need to continue to pay attention to the marginal accumulation range, if the accumulation continues to exceed the expected reality comes, the pressure above the aluminum price will increase, however, based only on the current inventory to do short aluminum prices, we tend to think that the space at this stage is not large
.
In view of the impact of this wave of the epidemic on manufacturing employment coinciding with the downstream Spring Festival shutdown, if the peak inventory in January and February is only a constant accumulation, there is not much room for aluminum prices to fall, and the bottom should be supported
.
For the current trend, the further weakening of aluminum market consumption is obvious, although Guizhou's production reduction interferes with production, but the overall supply is stable due to the increase
in imports.
With the improvement of logistics, the market arrival increases, the explicit inventory enters the accumulation stage, and under the pressure of accumulation, aluminum prices are under
pressure.
