Market confidence has recovered, and copper prices may decline first and then rise in the short term

Market review, copper prices rose slightly this week, London copper led the rise, technical daily level golden cross, and domestic affected by the epidemic more directly, Shanghai copper followed the rise limited, adjusted below 46,000
.
In terms of the epidemic, in addition to Hubei, other provinces have shown a decreasing trend, and Academician Ji Nanshan is expected to peak or appear in mid-to-late February, panic gradually stabilizes, and the bottom support of copper prices is consolidated
.
However, the postponed resumption of work has an increasingly obvious impact on the demand side, the first batch of resumption of work list is limited, and due to the impact of the epidemic, logistics tensions have also slowed down economic expansion
.
On the dollar front, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the economy is doing well, the US index hit a four-month high, and the short-term copper price bottom may have limited room to rebound
.

Since Monday, some enterprises have started work one after another, the spot market is dominated by traders entering the market, warehouse receipts are more popular, the inquiry atmosphere is gradually warming, there are not many downstream bargain stocks, and the holders are affected by funds to adjust prices and sell goods, but the transaction has not improved significantly
.
With the close delivery, the price difference between the near and far months widened to more than 200 yuan, and the good copper contract for the month changed from discount to premium around 30, briefly stabilizing
.

In the waste market, the overall low price of copper this week is mainly volatile, the main force of Shanghai copper is mainly running around 45200-45700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of bright copper in the market is 42000-42300 yuan / ton
.
The price difference between refined waste has narrowed to about 1,000 yuan at present, and due to the impact of the epidemic, some copper mills mainly rely on inquiry and online orders
.

This week's copper prices continue to hover at a low level, the mentality of cargo holders is more pessimistic, the willingness to sell goods is strong, coupled with logistics obstruction, manufacturers mainly accept orders online, and the scrap copper market performs poorly
.
Although some downstream processing enterprises have resumed work, they are relying on the raw materials prepared years ago to maintain production, and the inventory is at a low level, and the interruption of copper scrap greatly affects the output of
copper scrap processing enterprises.

The market trend predicts that this week's Shanghai copper bottom rebound, in which the epidemic is gradually controlled and treated under the influence of market confidence has recovered, noteworthy epidemic The expected economic impact of the epidemic still exists, the market is generally expected to have about 0.
5-1.
5% of domestic annual GDP to pull down, bringing some pressure
on medium and long-term copper prices 。 On the other hand, due to factors such as logistics and construction starts, copper demand is still in a cumulative state, and later with the further control of the epidemic after trading resumes, copper consumption increases or has a certain degree of price pull, it is expected that next week's Shanghai copper range volatility is dominant, or there is a first decline and then rise, Shanghai copper main range of 4.
55-46,500, London copper 5740-5840 US dollars
.