Market caution heats up, and the main upward trend of Shanghai aluminum has been blocked

Market focus: (1) The Asian dollar index continued to decline and is now trading around 96.
830, down 0.
19%
on the day.
(2) IAI data show that global metallurgical alumina production in November is estimated to average about 342,400 tons per day, down 0.
2% year-on-year, which is the first year-on-year decline since May, as producer China reduced production by 5.
6%.

(3) On December 30, the inventory in Gongyi area was small, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 02,000 tons
from last Thursday.

Spot analysis: On December 30, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14490-14530 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14510 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton
per day.
SMM reported that a large household did not announce a procurement plan during the day, the shippers' shipments were flat, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods was not strong, the market transaction was relatively light, significantly weaker than last week, or due to the impact of the weakening of downstream demand due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, and some traders expected that the spot price in the future market still had room to fall, and they were not eager to receive goods, and the downstream intraday on-demand procurement, the receipt was not obvious
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 38,827 tons, a daily decrease of 2,726 tons, a continuous decline of 10 days; On December 27, LME aluminum stocks were 1483625 tons, a daily decrease of 900 tons, a decline of 5 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended December 27, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 185127 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,693 tons, a decline for six consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract are 71362 lots, daily decrease of 1789 lots, short positions of 90969 lots, daily increase of 17558 lots, net short positions of 19607 lots, daily increase of 19347 lots, more short increase, net space increase
.

Market research and judgment: On December 30, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 encountered obstruction
.
Recent U.
S.
economic data performance is weak, the dollar is under pressure downward, while China's November alumina production decline, so that alumina prices have stabilized, and downstream aluminum rod inventories due to demand improvement has been greatly reduced, currently falling to the low level since the beginning of 2017, supporting aluminum prices, but the long-term trade situation between China and the United States is still uncertain, market caution is heating up, and electrolytic aluminum spot inventories are slightly tired, coupled with the future electrolytic aluminum has new production capacity is expected to be launched, the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
。 In terms of spot, a large household did not announce the purchase plan during the day, the shipment of the holder was flat, the willingness of the middleman to receive the goods was not strong, the market transaction was relatively light, and some traders expected that the spot price in the future market still had room to fall, and was not eager to receive the goods.

Technically, the main 2002 contract daily MCAD red column contraction, mainstream positions are more short, and short-term volatility is expected
.