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This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of first declining and then rising, with the main 1710 contract closing at 16620 yuan, up 270 yuan
weekly.
Technically, the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position to the upside, indicating that the market bulls are strong
.
At present, after the sharp rise in the early stage, Shanghai aluminum is in a high box operation, and it remains to be seen
whether it can reach a new high.
In terms of news, Premier Li Keqiang stressed at the executive meeting of the State Council on Wednesday: "Promote thermal power, electrolytic aluminum, building materials and other industries to reduce production and strictly control new production capacity
.
" "Most of the illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been reduced, and the re-emphasis on the capacity reduction policy this time indicates that the remaining illegal production capacity reduction will continue to be implemented
in the future.
"
In terms of the market, the survey shows that aluminum rod factories that are not affected by environmental protection policies have maintained a high operating rate, forming a situation
that is not weak in the off-season.
Due to the recent rapid price increases, a large number of low-priced inventories have taken profits, resulting in the processing fees of aluminum rods in Jiangxi and Guangdong at a low level (about 200 yuan / ton).
Due to the huge inventory of aluminum rods in the Guangdong market, which is enough to make up for the impact of production restrictions, it is expected that processing fees will not rise
sharply in the fourth quarter.
In terms of inventory, the main domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory on Thursday totaled 1.
381 million tons, an increase of 57,000 tons from last Thursday, and spot inventories increased sharply again, hitting a new high
on record.
According to historical laws, September and October are generally the stage lows of spot inventory, and this year the situation is the opposite
.
In the case of high spot inventory, aluminum prices can still perform strongly, mainly driven by the policy of reducing capacity and limiting production in the heating season
.
LME aluminum inventories totaled 1.
314 million mt on Thursday, up 30,000 mt
from last Thursday.
LME aluminium inventories have increased
significantly for the first time after a long period of decline.
This round of capacity reduction policy is so strict, it is inferred that the heating season production restriction measures will also be very strict
.
If the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is suppressed again, the price of aluminum may rise to a higher
level.
