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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1704 rebound weak, basically maintained a large overnight decline, the end of the close fell to 48740 yuan / ton, down 1200 points, or 2.
4%, from the previous trading day's settlement price, the position was 229176, the daily reduction of 36802 lots, the trading volume 512812
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai copper 1703 contract and 1704 contract narrowed to 180 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to resist decline declined
.
In terms of external trading: Asian Lun copper rushed back down, of which the highest rise in 3 months was 6072.
5 US dollars / ton, and now it has fallen to around 6018 US dollars / ton, indicating that there is strong selling pressure above, and the short-term pullback risk has not been fully released
.
In terms of positions, on February 13, the position of London copper was 329,000 lots, an increase of 3,421 lots, and the decline of London copper reduced its position, indicating that bulls took profits and left the market, and bears dominated
.
On the macro front: Overnight, Yellen's hawkish comments increased the probability of a Fed rate hike in March, and the dollar index rose
.
The Asian dollar index held steady, rising as high as 101.
35 and now trading at 101.
23
.
In addition, the Labor Department said on Tuesday that PPI rose 0.
6% month-on-month in January, well above expectations and the largest increase since September 2012
.
In terms of industry, BHP's Escondida copper miners' association in Chile has agreed to resume negotiations with BHP Billiton on Wednesday, which has helped ease upward pressure on copper prices, and the strike at the copper mine has entered its sixth day
.
In terms of market: on February 15, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 50 yuan / ton - 250 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, the trading price of flat water copper was 48480-48680 yuan / ton, and the trading price of premium copper was 48580-48800 yuan / ton
。 Shanghai copper contract last trading day, the next month basis is still maintained at 300 yuan / ton, holders of different mentality, flat water copper report discount 220 yuan / ton - discount 180 yuan / ton, premium copper discount 80 yuan / ton - discount 40 yuan / ton, market supply is still flat water copper mostly, goods are cheap, downstream due to price pullback increase in receipt, market transaction improvement, it is expected that copper will maintain a discount state after the change of months, but the price difference between good copper and flat water copper may now narrow
.
Chile's copper mine strike entered its sixth day, and the union and management intend to resume negotiations; Although the deep correction of Shanghai copper is partly due to Yellen's hawkish remarks last night, after the rapid rise, there is indeed a need
to release bearish overall.
On the technical side, the position has shrunk significantly, indicating that the bulls took profits at the high and the bears of the range operators gained the momentum, and copper retraced the 5-day moving average
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the bullish pattern of the Shanghai copper 1704 contract remain unchanged, and after the pullback, it is appropriate to go long at the low level, with a position opening reference of 48,500 yuan / ton and a stop loss reference of 48,000 yuan / ton
.
