Market analysis of rapeseed and rapeseed oil

Introduction: 1 Review of domestic market in recent two years The domestic rapeseed oil market of u9v in recent two years can be roughly divided into two stages: first, before the first half of last year, the overall trend of the edible oil market was stable, hovering at a lower price; second, the rapeseed oil market rose rapidly and significantly in the second half of the year due to the impact of the sharp reduction of rapeseed production and the drive of the soybean oil market, and stabilized at a high level U9v 1, excess processing capacity In the past few years, rapeseed processing plants have generally obtained better processing income In recent years, the southern region of China has invested in the construction and expansion of oil plants, which makes the processing capacity of rapeseed in China far greater than the actual processing volume The market of rapeseed is in short supply In recent two years, the high price of rapeseed in the acquisition process is an example But the price of rapeseed rose too fast in the second half of last year, which made the processing plant suspend the acquisition U9v 2 Rapeseed production In 2001, the output of rapeseed was 11.33 million tons, while in 2002, the total output was 10.53 million tons, down 7% from the previous year In 2002, China's rapeseed planting area increased significantly compared with the previous year However, due to the impact of continuous rain and low temperature and low light on the main rapeseed producing areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the per unit yield decreased significantly, with a 10% - 20% reduction in a considerable number of areas and a 30% - 40% reduction in some areas At the same time, the mildew and rot phenomenon increased significantly, and the oil content decreased, while the water content was very high U9v 3 Import and export situation According to the data provided by the General Administration of customs, 1717000 tons of rapeseed were imported in 2001, 618000 tons in 2002, a decrease of 64% on a year-on-year basis; 80000 tons of rapeseed were imported in 2002, an increase of 57.4% on a year-on-year basis In terms of quantity, although the import volume of edible oil last year was 3.19 million tons, compared with 1.65 million tons in 2001, the import volume is still far lower than the quota issued by the state, especially some traders adopt the strategy of hoarding, so the pressure on the whole market is not great U9v 4 International market price The global vegetable oil supply is tight due to the decline of production in the main export regions and countries (EU, Canada, Australia) According to the prediction of German oil world, in 2001 / 02, the global vegetable oil storage decreased by 1.2 million tons, and the demand will increase Therefore, the supply of rapeseed in the international market will be in short supply, and the price of rapeseed oil will rise rapidly U9v 5 Policy factors Before the first half of last year, the price of vegetable oil had been at a low level, which was mainly affected by the consumption season, inventory level, national reserve tanker exchange, and the distribution of import quota of edible oil However, the specific implementation of the detailed rules for genetically modified management has a huge impact on imported soybeans, and the soybean import situation to a certain extent has a great impact on the soybean oil market, due to the early fine The explanation is not clear and the importer is unable to operate At the same time, AQSIQ began to implement the new measures for the administration of inspection and Quarantine of imported and exported grain and feed, which also made the implementation of the contract more difficult and the cost of goods arriving at the port increased to a certain extent Therefore, the price of soybean and soybean oil rose in the second half of the year, driving the price of rapeseed and rapeseed oil to rise rapidly U9v 2 During the new year's day and Spring Festival, the current market price of u9v, the price of vegetable oil is firm and remains at 6100-6200 yuan / ton In February 2003, Suzhou Lumu oil plant offered 6050 yuan / ton of second grade vegetable oil, Tongli oil plant 6300 yuan / ton and Zhangjiagang oil plant 6100 yuan / ton Analysis of the current market, this price has indeed reached a high level in recent years It can be considered that the edible oil market is in a very sensitive period U9v 3 Vegetable oil market outlook in 2003 u9v 1 Production factors Due to the relatively high return on rapeseed cultivation and the rising price in the international market, it is expected that the planting area of domestic rapeseed will increase significantly According to relevant departments, the planting area will reach 8.2 million hectares in 2003, an increase of 8.8% over the previous year, with a total output of 12.93 million tons, an increase of 27% over the previous year U9v 2 Inventory level According to German oil world, the total global supply of rapeseed in 2002 / 03 was 36.22 million tons, a decrease of 9.6% compared with the previous year The raw materials of rapeseed in China are in short supply, and the supply of rapeseed oil in the market is very small, and the current situation is difficult to change in the short term The vegetable oil inventory in Jiangsu Province is 7865 tons, compared with 13080 tons in the same period last year U9v 3 Demand With the end of consumption peak on New Year's day and Spring Festival, the demand for edible oil will decrease seasonally in early 2003 Therefore, the price of vegetable oil is lack of demand pull and presents a weak phenomenon of rising U9v 4 Other aspects After the Spring Festival, the transportation capacity in Northeast China will be relieved and the shortage of soybean supply in Guannei will be improved According to the data of the State Grain and oil information center, the total amount of crude soybean oil imported to Hong Kong from October to December last year reached 400000-500000 tons, which will further increase the upward pressure on oil prices The supply and demand of vegetable oil in the international market is tight, but in the near future, due to the listing of new soybeans in South America and the correction of soybean oil price, the price of vegetable oil will also be restrained due to the increase of phased supply of oil and fat U9v to sum up, at present, the peak season of domestic consumption has passed, the stage supply-demand relationship has improved, and the price of vegetable oil in the international market is also in the state of falling adjustment Therefore, it is expected that in the absence of other important factors, 2003 In the first half of the year, rapeseed and rapeseed oil will step into the stage of falling and finishing In the second half of the year, the development trend still needs to pay close attention to the domestic oil production, the import and export of edible oil and the changes in the price of vegetable oil in the international market However, it is generally estimated that there will be no such scenery in 2002 U9V   U9V