Analysis of palm oil and rapeseed market this year

Introduction: 1 Since the middle of last year, with the price of oil seed and oil in the international market rising, palm oil has come out of the low since 2001, and reached a 40 month high (usd459.50/mt FOB of 24 degree palm oil) in January this year The increase was once greater than the trend of CBOT In March this year, the price of palm oil in the international market fell, leading to a corresponding decline in the price of domestic ports Taking Tianjin Port as an example, 24 degree palm oil has dropped more than 200 yuan How about the future market? I think it's a prudent long market In recent years, the international palm oil price has changed The average price of yqw 24 degree palm oil in 1998 was $664 FOB Malaysia Because of the rapid growth of palm oil production, the price fell for three years, reaching the lowest point in 2001 Malaysian officials have taken various measures to reduce inventories and expand the use of palm oil industry With the decrease of international edible oil production in 2002, the demand of China, India, Pakistan, Middle East countries and other countries increased, and the palm oil market began to recover Prices have also broken the $350, $400 and $450 mark in a row In the past five years, the quarterly change of prices has the following characteristics: in five years, there are four years that fall in February and rise in March; in five years, all rise in April (except this year); the cheapest month is generally concentrated in November February, and the most expensive month is possible throughout the year Yqw in 2002, the palm oil market was abnormal Led by other edible oil varieties such as soybean oil, the off-season was not light Since November 2002, although there has been a correction due to the light trading, the price is still relatively high This week, although the decline is deep, the trading volume is obviously shrinking, and there are signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing With the temperature rising, palm oil consumption peak season is coming, the price drop will be short-lived, will move closer to CBOT The yield and stock of palm oil and the effect of CBOT In early March, yqw oil world, Hamburg, Germany, claimed that by the end of March 2003, the palm oil storage stock had dropped to the lowest 3 million tons in four years If there were further problems in production, the price might exceed 1700 ringgit / ton Oil world forecasts that Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producer, will produce 12.2 million tons of palm oil this year, an increase of 0.3% over 2002 Although the newly planted oil palm has been gradually in full production in the past few years, the slow growth of palm oil production is mainly due to the drought in most parts of Malaysia last year, which reduced the per unit palm oil production Indonesia, the second largest palm oil producer, will produce 9.1 million tons of palm oil in 2003, compared with 8.8 million tons in 2002 Although yqw has a good soybean harvest in South America, CBOT has reached new highs in recent years, while the trend of palm oil is contrary, with a difference of nearly $100 between the two In normal years, the spread is usually $40 to $50 The bigger the price difference, the more attractive brown oil is to India, Pakistan and other edible oil importing countries With the increase of purchase quantity, the price difference between brown oil and soybean oil will further narrow Yqw 3 The impact of the US Iraq war on palm oil prices Yqw Middle East is the main consumption area of palm oil The average annual import volume of palm oil in Middle East countries is 2 million tons With the outbreak of war, the sea freight rate in the Middle East region will rise At the same time, the consumption volume in the region will also be limited, which has affected the market price of palm oil Europe is also a major consumer of palm oil The direct impact of the war on palm oil exports is the rise in freight rates and the basic disruption of navigation through the Suez Canal to European countries During the war, the cost will increase and the consumption will decrease The price is mainly based on the output and consumption If the demand affected by the war is limited, the price will also decrease But with the war almost over, palm oil prices will be supported as demand resumes in the Middle East and Europe The expansion of palm oil imports from China and India will boost the price of international palm oil market Yqw according to the data of cooit, India's central oil trade organization, the winter oil seed production in 2002 / 03 (November to October) may be reduced to 9.72 million tons, lower than the previous year's 12.3 million tons, due to insufficient rainfall in rainy season and reduced productivity At present, soybean oil prices are high, palm oil is the cheapest edible oil, so as the main consumer of palm oil, India has little room to pick and choose In 2002, China's total palm oil quota was 2.4 million tons, while the actual import of palm oil reached 2.22 million tons, up 46.3% over the previous year In 2003, China's palm oil quota was further increased to 2.5 million tons, and the actual import volume is expected to reach 2.4 million tons, which is further increased on the basis of the import volume in 2002 And with the warmer weather and the increasing use of palm oil, domestic traders are more willing to purchase relatively cheap palm oil Yqw to sum up, in the short term, the domestic palm oil price will fluctuate with the changes of the international palm oil market, the port inventory is relatively large, and the price is likely to decline slightly In the long run, the domestic palm oil market is affected by the warming weather and the increase of use The price is estimated to be about 5000 yuan It is recommended to buy some palm oil in June Yqw 2, yqw 1 and international market yqw according to the report of oil world, it is estimated that the total output of 11 major rapeseed producing countries in 2003 / 04 is 3.38 million tons, 16% higher than that in 2002 / 03, and the total supply is 40.66 million tons, 4.78 million tons higher than that in the previous year Therefore, the international market price will be correspondingly lowered this year The world's crushing capacity is 29.9 million tons, up 12% from the previous year Although total consumption has increased, it is not enough to offset the increase in total supply It is estimated that the inventory at the end of the year will be 1.406 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 1.164 million tons, but still lower than the five-year average of 2.25 million tons The weather in yqw EU is ideal, and this year's high yield is a foregone conclusion The production of Australia and Canada is likely to fluctuate greatly, mainly affected by precipitation Last year, the weather in the two countries was relatively dry, and this year has improved If there is no major disaster in the later weather, the production and export volume will be higher than last year Yqw WCE closed at $337.4 (about usd278 / mt, FOB) in July on Friday, with a recent resistance level of $385 and is expected to rise to $395-400 later Yqw 2 The domestic market of rapeseed is expected to produce 12 million tons of rapeseed this year, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with last year Up to now, although the rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin once slowed down the production process of rapeseed in this area, the weather conditions in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China are better than in previous years If there is no major disaster, the output will be higher than last year Generally speaking, the growth conditions of rapeseed in China are better It is conservatively estimated that China's import volume this year will be about 700000 tons, which is likely to reach 1.2 million tons, and it is estimated that 11.8 million tons will be used for crushing The predicted purchase price of yqw Yangtze River Basin is 1.05-1.10 yuan / Jin, that of Sichuan is about 1 yuan, and that of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is about 1.2 yuan If we plan to purchase or import rapeseed this year, I think we should look at the domestic and international rapeseed and rapeseed prices for another two to three months, miss the peak of domestic vegetable oil tanker exchange and make a decision after the production in Australia and Canada is clear The risk is relatively small Yqw -- Wanghao yqw of Zhonggu group (Tianjin) vegetable oil industry and Trade Co., Ltd