Market analysis of domestic soybean in the near future

Introduction: current market trends of soybean meal in some areas of Heilongjiang Province current market trends of soybean meal in some areas of Heilongjiang Province YDR ex factory prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in some oil plants of Heilongjiang Province YDR ex factory prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in Liming vegetable oil plant are 2040 yuan / ton and 6100 yuan / ton respectively; the ex factory prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in sanjeshu oil plant are 2040 yuan / ton and 6140 yuan respectively/ Tons; the ex factory price of soybean meal of Jiusan oil group is 1950-1980 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of soybean oil is 6150 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of soybean meal of Jiamusi Sanjiang oil plant is 1980 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of soybean meal of Mudanjiang No.2 oil plant is 2020 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of soybean oil is 6200 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of soybean meal of various oil plants in Jixian county is 1950-1980 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of soybean oil is 6140-6200 yuan/ Tons; the ex factory price of soybean meal and soybean oil of Kedong County Grain soaking plant is 2050 yuan / ton and 6200 yuan / ton respectively The factory price of some oil plants in Heilongjiang is 1.18 yuan / Jin for YDR Baoquanling oil branch; 1.18 yuan / Jin for Jiusan oil branch; 1.17 yuan / Jin for Bei'an oil branch; 1.18 yuan / Jin for Kedong County Grain soaking plant; 1.19 yuan / Jin for Jiamusi Sanjiang food company; 1.16-1.18 yuan / Jin for Jixian County oil plants; 1.24 yuan / Jin for Harbin Liming oil plant; YDR Platform price in some eastern regions of Heilongjiang is 1.17-1.18 yuan / Jin in Jiamusi City, 1.14-1.15 yuan / Jin in Qianjin Town, 1.17-1.18 yuan / Jin in Yingchun, 1.17-1.18 yuan / Jin in Fujin City, 1.17-1.18 yuan / Jin in Luobei County, 1.21-1.22 yuan / Jin in Luobei County, 1.16-1.17 yuan / Jin in Baoquanling, 1.15-1.16 yuan / Jin in Hulin County, and 1.15-1.16 yuan / Jin in Mishan county 1.15-1.16 yuan / Jin, 1.18-1.19 yuan / Jin in Nenjiang County, 1.22 yuan / Jin in Qiqihar, 1.2 yuan / Jin in Nehe City, 1.205 yuan / Jin in Dongxian railway station, 1.2 yuan / Jin in Bei'an City, 1.2-1.21 yuan / Jin in Zhaoguang, 1.17-1.18 yuan in Haibei Town, hailun City/ Jins; Suiling railway station platform price: 1.17-1.18 yuan / Jin; heihexi Gangzi platform price: 1.16-1.17 yuan / Jin; Longzhen platform price: 1.19-1.2 yuan / Jin; YDR spot soybean transaction price in some domestic wholesale markets: YDR Fuzhou grain and oil wholesale market: the average soybean transaction price in 2001: 2760 yuan / ton; Shandong Qingdao Pingdu grain and oil wholesale market: the average transaction price of selected soybean: 2800 yuan/ Tons, the average transaction price of selected soybeans in Hangzhou grain and oil wholesale market is 2860 yuan / ton, the third-class soybeans in Heilongjiang grain and oil wholesale market are 2422 yuan / ton, the third-class soybeans in Shanxi Yuncheng wheat wholesale market are 2820 yuan / ton, the third-class soybeans in Pingdu grain and oil wholesale market in Qingdao, Shandong Province are 2600 yuan / ton, and the first-class soybeans in Sichuan grain and oil wholesale market are 2640 yuan/ Tons, the southeast grain and oil wholesale market in Zhejiang Province, medium-sized soybean 2940 yuan / ton YDR market impact factor analysis: YDR for domestic soybean market development, market divergence has increased significantly The author believes that the price of domestic soybean market will not decline too much before the fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly, but the decline is expected to become the main tone of future soybean development: YDR first, the change of new agricultural law of the United States The core content of the new U.S bill is to increase subsidies to agriculture, especially product and price subsidies, and reduce the soybean loan rate from 5.26 USD / bushel before 2002 to 5.00 USD / bushel From the above data, we can see that the subsidy for soybeans is reduced, which to some extent reduces the enthusiasm of farmers to grow soybeans Because this bill reduces the enthusiasm of farmers to grow soybeans in the future We expect that in the next few years, at least before the next agricultural law, the enthusiasm of American farmers to grow soybeans will be greatly reduced To a certain extent, this will offset the growth of soybean production in South America and form a positive stimulus to market prices YDR was the second, and the squeezing efficiency decreased According to the investigation of relevant departments, at present, except Heilongjiang Province, the income of pressing and processing in the domestic soybean market is not optimistic The pressing benefits of domestic and imported soybeans in each region are significantly lower than that in the earlier stage, which is mainly due to the high price of soybeans and the declining market price of soybean meal Analysis of the reasons for the low price of soybean meal, in addition to the impact of factors into the off-season of soybean meal consumption, there are the following factors 1 The breeding industry is still at a seasonal low, limiting the demand for soybean meal At the same time, the outbreak of disease in some areas affects the breeding industry, affects the consumption of soybean meal, and makes the demand for soybean meal more shrinking 2 The new policy reduced the cost From March 1, the policy of exemption from soybean meal railway construction fund was formally implemented, which greatly reduced the transportation cost of soybean meal and provided space for the overall price decline of soybean meal The decrease of squeezing benefit hinders the expansion of soybean market demand YDR again, China's soybean production and imports Due to the expected increase in soybean planting area and rapeseed production, China's soybean and other oilseed production is expected to increase by at least 3 million tons in 2003 Therefore, it is questionable whether China's soybean import in 2003 / 2004 can continue to increase by 2 million tons per year in the past three years The final import volume of China's soybeans will depend on the profit of domestic feed and breeding industry and the commencement of new crushing and processing plants In 2003, the output of soybeans and the profit of domestic soybean crushing industry will be determined As we all know, the soybean squeezing benefit is one of the important factors that determine the soybean demand and the soybean meal supply If the squeezing benefit of the oil factory has been depressed, some factories will stop production to reduce the market supply of soybean meal, and the shutdown of the oil factory will affect the market demand for soybean YDR at the same time, the supply of soybean market is still increasing It is understood that recently, many ports have imported soybeans to the port, and Guangzhou port in the South has as much as 200000 tons of imported soybeans to the port in the near future According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, 1.29 million tons of soybeans were imported in January this year At the same time, relevant authorities predict that the import volume in February will reach 1.23 million tons In the later stage, with the gradual mass listing of cheap South American soybeans and the dredging of import channels, China's purchase focus will gradually shift to South American soybeans It is reported that China has ordered 7 million tons of South American soybeans YDR to sum up, we can clearly see that although there are still many favorable factors for the rise of soybean price in the market, the current basic situation of soybean market is the increase of supply and the sluggish demand, which is also the main factor for the recent decline of soybean price, and the pressing volume as the main demand of soybean is the main factor determining the price change It is expected that this situation will not change significantly in the short term, and there is still room for further downward soybean prices in the future YdR