Analysis of domestic soybean meal market in the near future

Introduction: [recent domestic soybean meal market analysis] the author believes that the main reason for the decline of soybean meal price is the sharp increase of imported soybeans, and the contraction of breeding industry is only one of them Here, we can consider the following aspects: 1 Because the per capita living standard in China has not declined significantly compared with last year, the demand for meat, egg and milk has certain rigidity, and there is little room for expansion and contraction 2 We can calculate such an account: in July, August and September 2000, 4.8 million tons of soybeans and 350000 tons of soybean meal were imported into China, and the final result was 600000 tons of soybeans in stock This happened during the period when the domestic soybean supply was relatively scarce The digestion of imported soybean and soybean meal in this period basically reflected the demand of domestic soybean meal That is to say, 4.2 million tons of soybeans were digested in three months, which is equivalent to 3.36 million tons of soybean meal In addition to 350000 tons of imported soybean meal, the total digested soybean meal is 3.71 million tons, with an average of 1.2 million tons per month According to this calculation, even with the impact of this year's decline in the efficiency of the breeding industry, the domestic demand for more than 1 million tons of soybean meal per month is not excessive 3 At the beginning of this year, the transportation capacity in Northeast China was tight, the quantity of soybeans sent from outside the customs to inside the customs decreased, and the price of soybean meal rebounded, which also reflected this problem 4 Since this year, China's rapeseed imports have declined, and the corresponding sources of rapeseed meal have decreased, which is a strong support for the soybean meal market, and the reduction of rapeseed meal is bound to increase the market demand for soybean meal Therefore, the main reason for the current soybean meal price decline is the domestic soybean surplus, especially after February, the transportation capacity in Northeast China was relieved, the domestic soybean price fell, the import soybean increased and other factors led to the domestic soybean meal supply surplus 5 Indirect effect of corn price increase Due to the impact of last year's production reduction, the price of corn rebounded significantly this year Although it has recovered in the near future, the flat price of Qinhuangdao port is 1150-1160 yuan / ton, also 300 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year This will also have an impact on the soybean meal which is the same as the feed material It is an inevitable rule that the rise and fall of soybean meal, especially in the case of poor efficiency 6 The reduction of quota and the decrease of rapeseed import have brought favorable stimulation to the domestic oil market Since China issued less than 200000 tons of crude soybean oil in the first half of 2000, there has been no new quota of crude soybean oil in China, and the import volume of natural crude soybean oil will also be reduced According to statistics, the import volume of crude soybean oil in China in the first quarter of this year will be 120000 tons less than that in the same period of last year In 2000, the import volume of crude soybean oil in China will be about 500000 tons less than that in 1999, and the decrease of crude soybean oil import is bound to occur Digests part of the increase in imported soybeans In addition, China's rapeseed imports are also declining this year, which is a good stimulus to the domestic oil market, conducive to the firmness of oil prices, or to curb the decline of oil prices China feed industry information network UIV