March 2021 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

First, the fundamentals

1.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) from January to February 2021 was 6.
452 million tons, a cumulative increase of 8.
4%
year-on-year.
From January to February, the increase in China's primary aluminum production was mainly due to the increase
in production capacity in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia in the southwest region of the previous year.
From January to February, China added 220,000 tons of aluminum production capacity, mainly in Yunnan
.

2.
It is understood that the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in February continued to be released, and Nissan increased
.
At present, it is expected that China's electrolytic aluminum production in March 2021 will be about 3.
334 million tons, and the daily chemical output will be about 107,600 tons, and the monthly average daily output may continue to rise
.

3.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the national output of alumina from January to February 2021 was 12.
6426 million tons, a cumulative increase of 14.
8%
year-on-year.
In addition, it is understood that China's alumina production in February was 5.
823 million tons, up 12.
32% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the daily output of 198,000 tons in January 2021, and the impact of the heating season basically faded, and some enterprises had certain overproduction operations, resulting in a significant increase in daily output
.

4.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in February 2021 was 146,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 52.
3% year-on-year; From January to February, the cumulative import volume was 455,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 150.
7%
year-on-year.
The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 373,300 tons, an increase of 77% year-on-year; From January to February, the cumulative export was 842,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 25.
9%
year-on-year.

5.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 350,000 tons of alumina in February and 490,000 tons
of alumina in January.
The total amount of alumina imports from January to February was 840,000 tons; In the same period last year, it was 720,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.
2%.

In February, alumina exports were 10,000 tons, down 68.
3% year-on-year, and the annual cumulative alumina exports were 20,000 tons, down 27.
1%
year-on-year.

6.
According to data from the International Aluminium Association, in February 2021, global primary aluminum production decreased by 8.
83% month-on-month to 5.
203 million tons, global primary aluminum production in January 2021 was 5.
707 million tons, and global primary aluminum production in February 2020 was 5.
139 million tons, up 1.
25%
year-on-year.
From January to February 2021, global primary aluminum production reached 10.
93 million tons
.
In the same period of 2020, the output was 10.
611 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
01%.

Second, the market review

In March, aluminum prices fluctuated more sharply, Shanghai aluminum once rose sharply, the main force rose to 17,955 yuan / ton, almost broke the 18,000 mark, but the high failed to effectively stand, and quickly fell back; as of the end of the month, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 17155, down 1.
77%.

This month, Lun aluminum continued to rise, and the aluminum price broke through a new high within the month, breaking through the 2300 mark, the highest rising to 2301 US dollars / ton, as of the end of the month, a cumulative increase of 2.
57% over the previous month; At present, although the turbulence in China and the United States has eased, the macro performance is still up and down, and it is expected that the high trend of aluminum next month will remain unchanged, but there is still a certain possibility of a shock pullback, focusing on the range of $2200-2400
.

In terms of market: the supply of electrolytic aluminum market in March is still abundant, the holders are actively shipping, the price is at a high level, although the orders of downstream enterprises have improved, but the high price inhibits some transactions, mainly buying on demand at low prices, and there are not many stockpiling merchants; Traders operate more frequently, driving market transactions, and market transactions are expected to continue to improve in April under the influence of peak season
.

East China: Electrolytic aluminum inventory in early March is still in the accumulation stage, starting in the second half of the year, affected by the improvement of downstream demand, electrolytic aluminum inventory has an inflection point, aluminum prices in March overall maintained at a high level of operation, during the period of volatility is more violent, the highest rise to around 17800, and then under pressure to fall, as of the end of the month, East China spot aluminum prices between 17140-17180 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton from the end of February, down 0.
64%.

。 South China: As of the end of March, the price of aluminum ingots in South China was between 17,400-17,500 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton from the end of February, a decrease of 0.
51%; In the spot market, orders from aluminum profile enterprises in South China increased in March, and the situation of receiving goods into the market improved significantly
.

3.
Inventory

LME aluminum stocks soared in March, especially in mid-March, when inventory increases exceeded 300,000 tons for two consecutive trading days, and by the end of March, LME aluminum stocks were 1905375 tons, an increase of about 580,000 tons, or 43.
7%,
from the end of February.
As of March 26, Shanghai aluminum inventories were 378792 tons, an increase of 44,352 tons, or 13.
3%,
from the end of February.
As of March 29, the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory was 1.
234 million tons, 09,000 tons more than the previous Thursday, and the South China Sea and Wuxi regions performed well to destock, and the South China Sea region destocked well
.
Electrolytic aluminum ushered in the first destocking situation this year, and with the demand of the consumption season, it is expected that the trend of electrolytic aluminum destocking is expected to continue
.

Fourth, the waste market

In March, the price of scrap aluminum market around the world rose and fell differently, the aluminum ingot market fluctuated more violently, the market quotation range widened, as of the end of March, the price of scrap aluminum in the South China market fell by about 100 yuan, the mainstream price of local aluminum alloy spray coating was around 13100, aluminum wire around 15,000, and cans around
11800.
The price of aluminum alloy spray coating in East China is around 13000, the broken bridge material is around 12000, and the mainstream of cans is around 11600-11700
.

In terms of market transactions, the scrap aluminum market in March increased compared with February, but the overall is still tight, the holders are bullish on the market, strong willingness to hold up prices, the market low-price supply is less, especially aluminum wire, 1 series, 3 series scrap aluminum, some merchants choose to cover the goods, it is understood that the current high price of aluminum wire in Jiangxi has reached 15700
.
In addition, the price of raw aluminum and cans are firm, although the price is at a high level, because the market supply is small, manufacturers are more active in adjusting prices to receive goods
.
Under the influence of the peak season, corporate orders have improved, the demand for scrap aluminum has increased, short-term scrap aluminum prices are still firm, it is expected that April or performance shock small rise, holders at high prices to reduce inventory, a small amount of goods can be
held.

5.
Market outlook

After entering the traditional peak season, the downstream demand has risen steadily, and the domestic social inventory has also officially entered the destocking stage, supported by destocking, aluminum prices continue to rise within the month, but as Shanghai aluminum climbs to a high level, downstream fear of heights gradually appears, enterprises begin to gradually digest inventory, aluminum prices under pressure to fall; At present, the current Shanghai aluminum has gradually turned to a fundamental lead, the impact of macro-control on the price is gradually reduced, the daily growth of demand aluminum prices or shock upward, but still need to pay attention to the stability of inventory decomposition, and high prices may again affect the market procurement enthusiasm
.
It is expected that next month, Shanghai aluminum will continue to consolidate at a high level, and the main force will still have pressure at 18,000
.