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Trade Service
First, the macro aspect
First, the macro aspectDomestically,
1.
The new VAT reform policy will be officially implemented
on April 1.
Experts predict that the scale of value-added tax reduction this year may exceed 900 billion yuan
.
This year's government work report proposed to deepen the VAT reform, reduce the current 16% tax rate to 13% in manufacturing and other industries, and reduce the current 10% tax rate in transportation and construction to 9%; Maintain the tax rate of 6% unchanged, but ensure that the tax burden of all industries will only be reduced but not increased
by adopting supporting measures such as increasing tax deductions for production and life services.
2.
China's official composite PMI for March was 54, the previous value was 52.
4
.
China's official manufacturing PMI for March was 50.
5 vs 49.
6 expected vs 49.
2
prior.
China's official non-manufacturing PMI for March was 54.
8 vs 54.
4 expected vs 54.
3
prior.
International aspect,
1.
China's large copper smelters cut the minimum processing and refining fee (TC/RC) for the second quarter of 2019 by more than 20%
on Thursday, according to foreign news on March 28, two people familiar with the matter from smelters said on Thursday.
2.
The monetary policy of many central banks around the world has turned, and a new round of "wide currency" in the world has risen
.
In addition to the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank clearly "easing", Japan, Canada and Australia have maintained their current low interest rate policies unchanged, and the probability of continuing to "easing" has increased
.
3.
The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 2.
25%-2.
5% at the March interest rate meeting, and announced the end of the balance sheet reduction plan
in September.
At the same time, the "dot plot" released by the Fed seems to suggest that interest rates
may not be raised this year.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
With the full release of macro positives in February, copper prices returned to decline in March
.
On the 15th, the 13th and second meetings closed, manufacturing value-added tax will be reduced from 16% to 13%, and will be implemented on April 1, because the copper price is a tax-inclusive price, the news stimulated the 1904 contract to fall and the 1903 contract price spread widened to nearly 1,000 yuan
.
At the same time, with the weakness of manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, the market has once again triggered concerns about the downward pressure on the economy, and copper prices fell as low as 48100 points
intraday.
In terms of the market, with the formal implementation of the tax reduction policy in April, the spot end has reached 1,000 yuan / ton in recent months, and the sharp premium of spot has led to a decline
in the willingness of downstream point prices in the near future.
At the same time, the price difference between electrolytic copper and copper scrap in Foshan remained at 5500 yuan / ton, which undoubtedly inhibited
the consumption of electrolytic copper.
3.
Waste market
Waste market
Market demand has not fully recovered, the macro environment is bearish, and the dollar is stronger, resulting in copper prices showing a high and falling trend this month
.
The main force of Shanghai copper mainly runs around 48000-49300 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of bright copper in the market is 44000-44400 yuan / ton, the price difference of refined waste is still widening at about 1000 yuan, and the consumer demand in the downstream market is higher
for scrap copper.
In the middle of the month, the atmosphere of the scrap copper market has warmed up, copper prices are also in a rebound, holders are actively shipping, the supply is temporarily abundant, with the traditional peak season gradually coming, downstream copper manufacturers bullish sentiment heats up, the willingness to receive goods increases, increase the amount of purchase into the market, and because spot copper is in a high premium state, the market for refined copper consumption is reduced, so even some manufacturers do not hesitate to raise the price to find goods
。 However, copper prices began to fall at the end of the month, and holders waited and watched to cover the goods, although some merchants had a strong willingness to exchange funds and chose to ship, but the market supply was still tight, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers in demand was not reduced, and continued to stock up at a high price, so the overall scrap copper trading situation improved this month
.
4.
Trend forecast
Trend forecast
This month, the international macro forecast is frequently pessimistic, and the world economic recovery changes
.
In terms of copper supply, the further decline in TC/RC prices also indicates that the supply of copper concentrate is insufficient
in the later period.
The accumulation of domestic inventories this year has reached a high point, and with the arrival of the demand season, it will gradually carry out the destocking period, but looking at the domestic demand situation, the infrastructure has been restarted, and the investment in the power grid has weakened, and now the industrial PMI is still in the slow recovery stage, or limit the rebound
of copper prices.
It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate strongly in the peak season in April, and it is currently in the initial stage of the supply easing and demand season, and the short-term macro news and market expectations will have a great impact on copper prices, and pay attention to domestic consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investment
.
5.
Industry news
Industry news
1.
The Ugandan government says it is making another attempt to reopen a closed copper mine
.
The copper mine is estimated to contain 4 million tons of ore
.
At Monday's cabinet meeting, the government decided to redevelop the Kilembe mine
, located at the foot of the snow-covered Rwenzori Mountains.
The government said in a statement that the redevelopment plan would include "further mineral exploration to increase the known reserve base"
.
According to a report by Codelco, a state-owned Chilean copper miner, the world's largest copper producer expects production at its El Teniente copper mine to increase to more than 500,000 tons per year
by 2025.
Increased production will make the mine one of the world's
largest resources.
The mine produced 465,000 tonnes of copper
in 2018.
3.
Recently, Tibet Yulong Copper Co.
, Ltd
.
obtained the original mining license with an annual output of 19.
89 million tons issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources.
The acquisition of the original mining certificate is of substantial significance for Yulong Copper to carry out the financing of the reconstruction and expansion project and comprehensively promote the construction of
the project.
4.
Chilean Mining Minister Baldo Prokurica said the restart of a smelter owned by Chile's state-owned copper company (Codelco) will take longer
than previously expected.
The copper smelter was suspended in December 2018 due to the need to upgrade to meet the latest waste emission standards, and its resumption date was delayed due to problems
with the Canadian construction company SNC-Lavalin, the project building implementer.
5.
China's five major copper enterprises have their own bright spots in 2018, Minmetals Resources (MMG) leads with the super strength of 466,000 tons of copper mine, and Chinalco, Zijin Mining, Luomolybdenum Group and Jiangxi Copper Industry form the second echelon of China's copper enterprises with a strength of 20~250,000 tons
.
6.
In order to cooperate with the long-term business development strategy of CNMC and take advantage of the benefits brought by the group's vertically integrated business, CNMC Huaxin Wet Method carried out the Huaxin Wet Copper and Cobalt Transformation and Expansion Project, with a total planned investment of 52.
412 million US dollars, expanding the facility's cathode copper hydrosmelting and cobalt recovery capacity, so that CNMC Huaxin Wet Process will expand to produce about 20,000 tons of copper cathode and 2,000 tons of cobalt hydroxide per year
.
