March 2017 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

International: The United States has a good economic outlook in recent years, the Federal Reserve confirmed to raise interest rates again, and at the same time reflected a more hawkish stance in the interest rate forecast, making the financial market 2017 interest rate hike expectations strengthened, commodity prices, especially copper prices are also affected by the global macroeconomy, considering China's supply-side reform policy promotion and Trump's plan for large-scale infrastructure stimulus plan, which is similar to the 1982-1984 Reagan New Deal and 2010-2011 China's 4 trillion stimulus special period.
Global inflation expectations are rising, the negative correlation between the US dollar and commodities has weakened, and commodity prices will be linked
to the global macro changes and the specific implementation progress of economic policies in 2017.

Domestic: China will still be one of the important growth engines of the global economy, considering that China's economic policy will be stable in 2017, it is expected that the growth rate of China's real estate investment will decline, while the recovery of manufacturing investment and the high growth of infrastructure will support the relatively stable growth rate of domestic investment, and China's fiscal and monetary policies in 2017 will also be adjusted to cope with changes
in the international situation 。 In 2017, the central government will continue to implement the supply-side reform idea, and emphasize that the reform should make "substantial progress", in November 2016 the State Council executive meeting proposed the assessment and acceptance to "ensure that the production capacity really goes to the real retreat", reflecting that the central government also has doubts about the essence of capacity reduction, and then the real industry capacity reduction shows signs of acceleration, the focus of China's industrial policy in 2017 is to strive to optimize the way to reduce capacity, superimposed on environmental protection and transportation problems rectification, the reform process needs more observation
.