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Last Friday night, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14,000 yuan / ton, and after briefly rushing to 14,130 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, the rumors of violations of Shandong Electrolytic Aluminum captive power plant reappeared, long and short cautiously waited, the main force of Shanghai aluminum was weak and volatile, and the center of gravity slowly moved down, closing at 14,000 yuan / ton
.
The trading volume decreased by 103,000 lots to 98,752 lots, and the open position decreased by 584 lots to 351088 lots
.
Shanghai-aluminum 1806 contract increased its position by 2022 lots
.
After experiencing the trough, the main center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum slowly rose, struggling around the 14,000 yuan / ton mark, paying attention to the matter of captive power plants, and it is expected to operate 13950~14150 yuan / ton
within the day.
Spot discount 170~130 yuan / ton
.
In terms of the market, at this stage, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the heating season has ended, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is likely to increase, and in the short term, domestic electrolytic aluminum will show an oversupply situation, and Shanghai aluminum has retained its momentum
.
However, the Shanxi bauxite mine has been shut down, or transmitted to electrolytic aluminum from top to bottom through the industrial chain, limiting the output
of electrolytic aluminum in the later stage.
And downstream demand is slowly returning, aluminum prices should not be overly bearish
.
The market is generally waiting for the emergence of the inventory inflection point, and it is expected that the aluminum price will still fluctuate around 14,000, so it is recommended that the new order of Shanghai aluminum wait and see
.
Shanghai aluminum briefly regained 14,000 yuan on Friday night, then fell slightly, but still stood above
this line.
Last week, after the aluminum price fell back, demand improved significantly, and the market rekindled the hope for the consumption season, but the fundamental supply pressure still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the competition
between the long and short sides around 14,000 yuan.
