Many factors have caused the high volatility of international oil prices

Affected by the EU's ban on Russian oil, the "OPEC+" capacity adjustment plan, the relevant policies of the United States to curb inflation and other factors, international oil prices have fluctuated greatly recently, West Texas Light Crude Oil Futures (WTI) prices closed at $115.
26 per barrel on the 1st of this month, rose to $122.
11 per barrel on the 8th, and closed at $117.
59 per barrel on the 16th.

Under the influence of multiple factors, the international oil market has recently shown the following characteristics:

First, the tight supply situation continues
.
Global oil demand is on the rise, with the world's major economies recently reopening from lockdowns and global refinery imports expected to increase
after seasonal maintenance, as a statement from the June 2 OPEC+ ministerial meeting.

But at the same time, "OPEC+" insisted on the policy
of limiting production on the grounds of maintaining market balance and stability.
Although the "OPEC+" ministerial meeting decided to raise production, in fact, only the 432,000 barrels per day planned to increase production in September were evenly distributed to July and August, so this production increase did not improve the current supply and demand state, and international oil prices rose after the meeting statement was released
.
In addition, insufficient production capacity, turmoil and other factors have led to a large number of oil producers unable to complete the specified production, according to the monthly report released by OPEC on the 14th, OPEC countries' oil production in May fell by 176,000 barrels / day month-on-month to 28.
51 million barrels / day, far from reaching the growth target
stipulated in the "OPEC+" agreement.

Second, major oil-producing countries maintain coordination and cooperation
.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European Union has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia, and the oil ban passed on the 3rd of this month requires EU countries to stop importing all Russian seaborne crude oil after 6 months and stop importing Russian refined oil after 8 months, and Russian oil exports are facing greater pressure
.

And major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have always supported Russia
in the energy sector.
When Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Saudi Arabia at the beginning of the month, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal confirmed to him that GCC countries would not join sanctions
against Russia.
The OPEC+ meeting divided the additional quota equally between Saudi Arabia and Russia, did not exclude Russia as rumors in the West, and agreed to extend the capacity compensation period until the end of December, which is conducive to easing production and export pressure
.
In addition, Saudi Arabia has cooperated with Russia in adjusting its oil trade lines, and Russia has actively expanded into the Asian market by means of discounts, replacing Saudi Arabia as India's second largest oil supplier in May, and Saudi Arabia raising its official selling price
for Asian and European markets in July.

Third, the United States and the West have taken multiple measures to stabilize oil prices
.
According to the US Department of Labor, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.
6% year-on-year in May, the highest increase in 40 years
.
The American Automobile Association recently said that the average price of gasoline in the United States has reached about $5 per gallon, up 62%
year-on-year.
US President Joe Biden acknowledged that this wave of inflation will continue, calling for more measures to curb inflation and stabilize oil prices
.

To this end, the United States has recently vigorously improved its relations with Saudi Arabia, with frequent exchange of visits between officials from the two countries, and Biden plans to visit Saudi Arabia
next month.
In terms of energy, the United States changed its previous strategy of pressuring Saudi Arabia to increase production, recognized Saudi Arabia's status and voice in the international energy market, and tried to obtain Saudi Arabia's support
in the energy field through deeper demand docking.
In addition, the United States continued to increase crude oil inventories, the Federal Reserve announced the largest interest rate hike since 1994 on the 15th, affected by the impact of the US crude oil futures price declined, WTI price once fell to about
$115 per barrel on the same day.
It is reported that the United States plans to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil so that the country can ship crude oil to Europe and alleviate the energy shortage
of EU countries.

Overall, geopolitical risks are still an important factor affecting the trend of oil prices, and the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West against Russia have not only caused domestic oil prices to rise, inflation has continued, and the economy has been under pressure, but also made it more difficult for the international oil market to restore the balance between supply and demand
.
If the negative effects of conflict and sanctions cannot be eliminated, the volatility of high international oil prices may continue
.