Maleic anhydride price hits 10-year high

The recent surge in the maleic anhydride market has aroused widespread concern in the industry
.

Regarding the future market trend of maleic anhydride, the industry's views are more consistent: in the short term, the tight supply pattern will continue, and the long-term trend will depend on the landing of new capacity
.

Prices hit a 10-year high

"In 2021, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole continues the strong market since the second half of last year, and has been in the high price range for a long time.
In mid-September it ushered in a breakthrough market, and the price hit the highest point of the year in one fell swoop
.

According to data from the Business Society, the maleic anhydride commodity index on September 16 was 126.
23, a record high since September 1, 2011, an increase of 146.
64% from the lowest point in 10 years
.

In fact, starting from the end of August, amidst the industry’s doubts, hesitation, and caution, the price of maleic anhydride has surpassed all obstacles, breaking through the previous highs of RMB 12,000 and RMB 12,500, reaching a 10-year high of RMB 13,400 on September 16.
After the point, it began to hover high
.

　　According to Li Tong, an analyst at Zhuochuang Chemical, since the beginning of this year, the domestic maleic anhydride market has maintained a high volatility pattern
.

　　Throughout the year, while the top price repeatedly broke through the 10,000 yuan mark, the bottom price did not fall below 8,500 yuan except for the special period before the Spring Festival, and the decline was slow
.

　　Tight balance continues

　　As for the driving factors of the strong market of maleic anhydride this year, Yang Guangzhi and other industry insiders believe that the main reason is that the fundamentals of supply and demand are tight
.

　　In terms of demand, driven by the economic recovery at home and abroad, the demand for downstream unsaturated resins and other fields has grown strongly, which has become the main driver of pushing up the price of maleic anhydride
.

　　In terms of supply, the current domestic production capacity of maleic anhydride is 1.
29 million tons/year
.

　　In addition, the slow release of new capacity also further pushed up the market for maleic anhydride
.

　　The market is near and far from worrying

　　Regarding the later trend of the maleic anhydride market, the industry generally believes that the tight balance will continue in the short term, but with the release of new production capacity, the forward market may fluctuate and fall back
.

　　Li Tong said that at present, although the expected slowdown of domestic economic growth in the second half of the year will curb downstream demand growth, the planned production capacity of unsaturated resins is still large, superimposed on the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak consumption season and stocking before National Day Boosted by other factors, the current high level of maleic anhydride market support is acceptable, and the domestic maleic anhydride export momentum remains strong
.
Considering that there is no short-term increase in the supply of maleic anhydride, it is expected that supply and demand will maintain a tight balance before November, which will continue to play a strong supporting role in the maleic anhydride market
.

　　In the long term, with the current high market price of maleic anhydride, there is resistance on the downstream demand side, and the current downstream companies have insufficient motivation to receive goods at a high level
.
In addition, due to the sharp increase in freight rates, exports may be weakened, and the sustainability of the export side is difficult to maintain.
There is a risk that the maleic anhydride market will loosen and fall
.
From November to next year, the number of maleic anhydride projects put into production gradually increases, and there is a risk of a fall in downstream demand.
By then, the tight supply situation may be gradually eased
.

　　More importantly, from the perspective of the past five years, new large-scale maleic anhydride plants have been launched one after another
.
It is reported that Qixiang Tengda’s 200,000-ton/year maleic anhydride expansion project has entered the EIA public announcement stage on July 28
.
After the completion of the project, the company can finally achieve a production scale of 400,000 tons/year maleic anhydride
.
In addition to Qixiang Tengda, large petrochemical companies such as Sinopec, Wanhua Chemical, Zhongjing Petrochemical, and Huizhou Yuxin are also rushing to join the game
.
According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, in the next 5 years, the planned production scale of domestic maleic anhydride will exceed 2 million tons per year
.
If these projects to be put into operation can be implemented as scheduled, the number of companies with maleic anhydride production capacity of more than 100,000 tons/year will increase from the current 4 to 10 in the next five years, and the number of production companies with a capacity of 200,000 tons/year or more will also increase from one.
The increase to six means that large-scale and large-scale production may become the mainstream of maleic anhydride production capacity in the future, and the supply and demand situation of the market will be reshaped
.