Mainstream short positions are large, and Shanghai aluminum short-term volatility is strong

On January 22, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose and rose, with the highest 14175 yuan / ton and the lowest 14090 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14165 yuan / ton, up 0.
32%
from the closing price of the previous trading day.
In the external market, LME aluminum opened low and upward, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1822.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
25%
on a daily basis.

Market focus: (1) US President Trump issued another tariff threat, saying that if a fair agreement with Europe cannot be reached, he will seriously consider imposing tariffs
on European imported cars.
(2) Officially, the new coronavirus may mutate, and there is a risk
of further spread of the epidemic.
(3) As of January 20, the total production scale of electrolytic aluminum in China in 2020 was 1.
381 million tons, and 72,200 tons have been resumed; 1.
05 million tons of new production capacity has been built, 35,000 tons have been put into operation, and 3.
97 million tons of new production capacity is under construction during the year, and it is expected to eventually achieve a total of 3.
82 million tons
within the year.

Spot analysis: On January 22, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14070-14110 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14090 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday East China market is still light, because the downstream and traders have entered a holiday state, the market supply and demand are weak, and the cargo holders are not active in shipments under the large discount state, and the intraday East China market transaction is poor
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 75,550 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 727 tons, down for 4 consecutive days; On January 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1309050 tons, a daily decrease of 18,625 tons, a continuous decline of 21 days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 78271 lots, minus 1765 lots per day, short positions were 88650 lots, daily minus 2384 lots, net short positions were 10379 lots, daily minus 619 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

On January 22, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2003 fluctuated up
.
US President Trump issued another tariff threat, aggravating US-European trade tensions, coupled with the possibility of the spread of China's pneumonia epidemic, market risk aversion heated, while downstream demand before the holiday weakened, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to resume, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, the value of downstream aluminum production has increased, short-term primary aluminum supply is still tight, and there is still support
for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, intraday East China market is still light trading, because downstream and traders partially enter a holiday state, market supply and demand are weak, and holders in large discount state are not active in shipments, intraday East China market transaction is poor
.
Technically, there is support at the 14100 position of the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum, and the mainstream short position reduction is large, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.