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Natural rubber rose slightly on Friday night, with RU2101 closing at 12225 points, up 0.
25%.
Affected by external systemic risks, the confidence of Shanghai rubber 2101 contract bulls fell at the beginning of last week, while the bears strengthened, and the price fell from 12600 yuan / ton to around 12200 yuan / ton before stabilizing
.
After the downward trend of rubber prices digested the bearish risk, the bears took profits on the dip
.
In August, the center of gravity of rubber prices moved steadily upward, and in recent days it has risen slightly in a narrow range
.
In the short term, the long-short drive is not obvious, and the landing of alternative planting indicators can alleviate the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan production areas
.
However, the specific number is lower than the level previously predicted by the market, and the bearish factors that the market was worried about suppressing the price have also been basically digested, and the market has not given a bearish reaction
to the entry of substitutes in the past two days.
On the contrary, the price of raw materials in Thailand on the supply side has been firm, and there is some support on the cost side, although the peak season is gradually coming, and there is an expectation of incremental supply, but the weather phenological conditions in Southeast Asia production areas are relatively unstable recently, and the year-on-year production reduction has also supported the price
.
On the demand side, tire factories still maintain a high operating rate, overseas orders continue to improve, and the demand side maintains a continuous improvement trend
.
However, the newly announced inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone shows an increase in arrivals, general trade inventories continue to rise, and the record high of mixed rubber inventories has led to a weakening of mixed rubber spot prices, which may be the biggest factor
in the current suppression of the market.
The fundamentals of rubber itself have a long-short contradiction between supply increment and demand recovery, and it is in the consolidation stage
in the near future under the background of weak macro.
The bearish factor of alternative planting, which the market was most worried about, has not formed a real bearish at present, and the fundamentals are neutral
.
It is recommended to try long light positions around the current 12500 yuan -12600 yuan, and pay attention to position control
.
