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On Thursday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated to the upside, with the highest 70,660 yuan / ton during the day, the lowest 69,850 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 70,410 yuan / ton, up 0.
7% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper fluctuated to the upside, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9577 / ton, up 0.
52%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) Fed Kaplan: The Fed still expects inflationary pressures to expand into next year; The CPI data is in line with
the Fed's outlook.
(2) According to news, the current strike of Chile Caserones mainly affects mining, the operation of the dressing plant is currently less affected, and it has not had much impact on copper concentrate production, and the company will continue to work hard to reach an agreement with miners to minimize the impact
on production.
If the strike continues, copper concentrate output will also be affected
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 70220-70460 yuan / ton, the average price is 70340 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 325 yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in the day was 40,670 tons, a daily decrease of 299 tons; LME copper stocks were 235775 tonnes, down 150 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2109 contract top 20 long positions 68649, -957, short positions 81283, +1769, net short positions 12634, +3123, long reduction, short and net short increase
.
Market research and judgment: Although the US CPI data is still at a high level, the core CPI is less than market expectations, coupled with the recent outbreak of the US epidemic again, the market's expectations for the Fed to accelerate the contraction of QE cooled, the US dollar index plunged intraday, and recently paid attention to the number of
initial jobless claims in the United States that week.
On the supply side, some copper mines in South America have recently held strikes, and the supply disturbance of copper mines has further increased
.
However, the spot premium of the copper market has decreased slightly recently, and the downstream support in the off-season is insufficient
.
In the short term, macro sentiment warms up, inventories continue to decline, and Shanghai copper may fluctuate
upward.
