Macro sentiment is intertwined with strong sorting out of Shanghai copper

Last week, London copper bottomed out
.
The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was 7983.
75 US dollars / ton, down 20.
25 US dollars / ton per day; Last week's average price was 8043 US dollars / ton, down 59.
25 US dollars / ton compared with the average price last week, down 0.
74%.

On the supply side, there are still uncertainties
in the movement of goods in Chile, Peru and Africa.
The domestic supply side has also been disturbed, due to the recent market storage rumors and power shortage caused by the impact, short-term supply side pressure is reduced, of which the Sichuan-Chongqing area is particularly serious, industrial electricity has pressed the pause button, the copper processing enterprises have an impact, some production capacity or short suspension of production, but a copper pipe processing enterprise reflects that the current traditional consumption of copper tubes off-season, limited demand, power rationing has little impact on the overall production and operation of the factory
.
And at present, smelting profits are still considerable, while smelter maintenance is ending, production has resumed, and new projects have been put into operation, inventories may be improved, and low inventories may weaken
copper prices.

On the demand side, the power rationing policy and the epidemic also affected the demand side, among which the epidemic situation in Guixi City has become more and more serious, the shipment of vehicles is not smooth, and if the control continues, the market sentiment will be dampened; Although there is policy support for real estate, it has not improved, and the new construction month fell by 45.
4% year-on-year, continuing to drag down copper consumption
.
However, new orders for infrastructure ports continued to grow, and electrical cable companies gradually returned to normal levels driven by infrastructure, and the downward trend of household air conditioning scheduling in August changed significantly
.

In terms of spot, the supply of circulating goods is tight, the premium is high again, and the consumption performance is becoming weaker, and it is difficult to have a large number of active buying, and the transaction is quiet
.
In addition, the holders offered different quotations, some covered the goods and sold them, the buyers were afraid of heights, the transaction performance appeared slow, and the overall spot transaction was not good
.

In terms of inventories, London copper stocks fell last week, accumulating an increase of 8,025 tons to 123825 tons, a decline of 6.
09%.

Shanghai copper stocks fell last week, with a cumulative decrease of 10,606 tons to 31,205 tons, down 25.
37%
from last week.

On the macro front, hawkish Fed officials continue to shout, adding fuel to the already weak economic environment, the probability of aggressive interest rate hikes in September is still not to be taken lightly, while the domestic economic data in July is lower than expected, especially the real estate performance is quite sluggish, and the confidence of economic repair has been frustrated
.
However, the domestic continued loose monetary policy, and attached great importance to the development of a series of industrial policies such as new energy, infrastructure, and photovoltaics, which may drive the increase in copper consumption under the stimulation of favorable policies, and terminal cable consumption was boosted by infrastructure
.
At the same time, low inventories and tight spot stocks supported copper prices
.

Overall, macro sentiment is intertwined, and although the dollar index jumped to a one-month high weighing on metals, the surge in oil prices relatively offset the strong dollar suppression, so Shanghai copper performed strongly this week and continued to hover
around 10,000.